How exposure to land use impacts and climate change may prune the tetrapod tree of life

Abstract

Human domination of landscapes is a key driver of biodiversity loss, with the fingerprint of climate change becoming increasingly pronounced. Frameworks and tools for identifying threats to biodiversity are required to meet Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework targets for 2030 that call for, among other things, reducing or halting species extinction rates (1). Hence, we compiled a phylogenetic tree for terrestrial tetrapods, mapped hotspots of geographically restricted and evolutionarily distinct lineages, and identified which hotspots may simultaneously face the highest magnitudes of land use impacts and climate change. Across a quarter of Earth's surface, hotspots contain the entire ranges of 45% of tetrapods, representing 39% of terrestrial tetrapod evolutionary heritage. By 2070, we estimate 8-13% of this heritage to occur entirely within hotspots highly exposed to climate change, with 13-29% of hotspots projected to experience high exposure to both stressors simultaneously. Most hotspots at highest risk occur in countries least able to take action. Our analysis highlights the need for global ambition and coordination to avoid catastrophic loss of tetrapod evolutionary heritage.