How essential of the balance between large and small scale features to reproduce precipitation during a sudden sharp turn from drought to flood

Ma, Yuanyuan; Yang, Yi; Wang, Chenghai

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4445-3

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…In the region where drought occurs, the occurrence of extreme precipitation may make the region change from drought to flood rapidly. This phenomenon of changing from drought to flood in a short time is called "drought-flood abrupt alternation events", which often causes more damage than the single drought or flood event [11]. In view of the hazard severity caused by the drought-flood abrupt alternation events, many scholars carried out research on the anomalies of drought and flood events [12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Evolution of Drought, Flood, and Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events under Climate Change Using the Daily SWAP Index

Zhao

Weng

Chen

et al. 2020

Water

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With the increase of drought and flood frequency, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events occur frequently. Due to the coexistence and rapid transformation of drought and flood, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events is often more harmful and threatening than the single drought or flood event to the security of the society. This study is to synthetically evaluate the evolving characteristics of drought, flood, and drought-flood abrupt alternation events under climate change, which are identified by using the Standard Weighted Average Precipitation (SWAP) index. The variability of drought, flood, and drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the future is predicted by using GCM projections, whose outputs are corrected by using a daily bias correction method. The results show that: (1) The SWAP index has the capability to judge reliably the onset, duration, and intensity over the study areas, and can be used to monitor drought-flood abrupt alternation events efficiently; (2) In the reference period (1961–2005), for the drought-flood abrupt alternation events, the frequency has a downward trend in the upper reaches and an upward trend in the lower reaches, and the spatial distribution of intensity shows a contrary law to that of frequency; (3) The frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation events show an upward trend in the whole basin in the future period (2021–2095), under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results indicate that drought-flood abrupt alternation events can be more frequent, and the intensity will significantly increase in the 21st century, which may likely pose a serious impact on this basin.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Evolution of Drought, Flood, and Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events under Climate Change Using the Daily SWAP Index

Zhao

Weng

Chen

et al. 2020

Water

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“…This review does not aim to give a certain definition. However, it can be generated from existing works on DFAA, in order to define an event of DFAA, three aspects have to be settled: 1) the direction of the abrupt turn, i.e., whether it is turning from flood (wet) to drought (dry), or from drought (dry) to flood (wet); 2) the number of abrupt turning times in one event, for example, a "flood-to-drought" (FTD) or a "drought-to-flood" (DTF) event contains one abrupt turn, and a "flood-to-drought-toflood" (FDF) or a "drought-to-flood-to-drought" (DFD) event contains two (Ma, Yang, et al, 2019;Shi et al, 2021); 3) the length of time range of the abrupt turn within a DFAA event. Most existing researches consider a realm of four to 6 months to be a common time span for a FTD/DTF shift (Wu et al, 2006;Shan et al, 2015).…”

Section: Defining the Drought-flood Abrupt Alternationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification, physical mechanisms and impacts of drought–flood abrupt alternation: a review

et al. 2023

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Climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and floods. This study aims to review the literature on the newly proposed phenomenon known as drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA). A comprehensive summary is provided to round up the numerous approaches employed to identify DFAA events, as well as its mechanisms and impacts. To provide a reference for responding and managing the emerging intensity and frequency of DFAA events, we conclude the paper by listing the insufficiency of current research and suggesting possible future research directions. As for the impact of DFAA, besides the loss of life and property which can be caused by any natural disaster, a DFAA event severely threatens food security by making a lasting and profound impact on the land productivity through the alteration of the combining conditions of water, soil, and temperature. As for the future research directions, existing indexes developed for DFAA identification should be improved by downscaling the temporal and spatial scale, with interactions of neighboring drought and flood events taken into consideration. What’s more, to better protect human society from the losses caused by DFAA, researches on accurate DFAA prediction are encouraged.

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“…There is also plenty of evidence to show that the consecutive occurrence of drought and pluvial events can have a greater influence on agricultural production and economic losses than individual hydrological extremes Darenova et al, 2017;Handwerger et al, 2019;He & Sheffield, 2020). China is exposed to frequent hydrological extremes, including droughts (Liu et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2020), floods (Wang & Gu, 2016;Zong & Chen, 2000), and the co-occurrence of droughts and floods (Long et al, 2014;Ma et al, 2019). The dramatic switch between droughts and floods was also observed in some regions of China (Du et al, 2013;Feng et al, 2014;Ma et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…China is exposed to frequent hydrological extremes, including droughts (Liu et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2020), floods (Wang & Gu, 2016;Zong & Chen, 2000), and the co-occurrence of droughts and floods (Long et al, 2014;Ma et al, 2019). The dramatic switch between droughts and floods was also observed in some regions of China (Du et al, 2013;Feng et al, 2014;Ma et al, 2019). Wu et al (2006) proposed a drought-flood coexistence index to investigate the co-occurrence of droughts and floods in summer from 1957 to 2000 in the Yangtze River Basin of South China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Abrupt Shifts Between Dry and Wet Extremes Over China Through an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

et al. 2020

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The dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) event, which is defined as the phenomenon of dry (or wet) spells abruptly following wet (or dry) spells, magnifies the influence of individual wet and dry events. The dynamic evolution of DWAA events has not been studied for different climate zones of China that is particularly susceptible to dry and wet extremes. This study explores the future changes in the abrupt alternations between dry and wet extremes across 10 climate divisions of China, with a thorough assessment of dry and wet conditions using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We take advantage of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations including the Providing Regional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) experiment and five CORDEX East Asia experiments to produce high-resolution climate information for a baseline period of 1975-2004 and a future period of 2069-2098. Our findings disclose that a total of 70% of China's land area suffered from the DWAA events at least once during 1975-2004. The wet-dry alternation event is projected to become more frequent in summer, and a prominent increase in the number of dry-wet alternation events is expected to occur in spring over most parts of China. Moreover, an increasing number of DWAA events with intensified magnitude is projected to strike the North China Plain dominated by warm temperature and humid zone, which is the most densely populated region of the country and is also the largest agriculture production area. Our findings also reveal a strong positive correlation between DWAA and heavy rainfall. The 95th percentile rainfall event contributes most to the wet-dry alternation event for most climate divisions of China. Plain Language Summary The emerging disaster of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) has been receiving increasing attention due to its compound effects on agricultural production and socioeconomic development. Since China is exposed to dry and wet hydrological extremes as well as their interconnections, a first attempt is made in this study to explore the historical evolution and the future change in the abrupt shifts between dry and wet extremes for different climate divisions of China. Our findings reveal that a total of 70% of China's land area suffered from DWAA events at least once from 1975 to 2004. More importantly, the DWAA is expected to occur more frequently and intense by the end of the 21st century, especially for the North China Plain which is the most densely populated region of the country and is also the largest agricultural production area. Moreover, the summertime wet-dry alternation is expected to become more frequent for most climate divisions of China, while the dry-wet alternation event is projected to occur more frequently in spring over East China. These findings provide meaningful insights into the development of adaptation strategies for enhancing society's resilience to compound extremes in a changing climate.

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How essential of the balance between large and small scale features to reproduce precipitation during a sudden sharp turn from drought to flood

Cited by 18 publications

References 59 publications

Analysis of the Evolution of Drought, Flood, and Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events under Climate Change Using the Daily SWAP Index

Analysis of the Evolution of Drought, Flood, and Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events under Climate Change Using the Daily SWAP Index

Identification, physical mechanisms and impacts of drought–flood abrupt alternation: a review

Projected Changes in Abrupt Shifts Between Dry and Wet Extremes Over China Through an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

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