With the increase of drought and flood frequency, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events occur frequently. Due to the coexistence and rapid transformation of drought and flood, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events is often more harmful and threatening than the single drought or flood event to the security of the society. This study is to synthetically evaluate the evolving characteristics of drought, flood, and drought-flood abrupt alternation events under climate change, which are identified by using the Standard Weighted Average Precipitation (SWAP) index. The variability of drought, flood, and drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the future is predicted by using GCM projections, whose outputs are corrected by using a daily bias correction method. The results show that: (1) The SWAP index has the capability to judge reliably the onset, duration, and intensity over the study areas, and can be used to monitor drought-flood abrupt alternation events efficiently; (2) In the reference period (1961–2005), for the drought-flood abrupt alternation events, the frequency has a downward trend in the upper reaches and an upward trend in the lower reaches, and the spatial distribution of intensity shows a contrary law to that of frequency; (3) The frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation events show an upward trend in the whole basin in the future period (2021–2095), under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These results indicate that drought-flood abrupt alternation events can be more frequent, and the intensity will significantly increase in the 21st century, which may likely pose a serious impact on this basin.
Alluvial channel has always adjusted itself to the equilibrium state of sediment transport after it was artificially or naturally disturbed. How to maintain the equilibrium state of sediment transport and keep the river regime stable has always been the concerns of fluvial geomorphologists. The channel in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is characterized by the staggered distribution of the bifurcated river and the single-thread river. The change of river regime is more violently in the bifurcated river than in the single-thread river. Whether the adjustment of the river regime in the bifurcated river can pass through the single-thread river and propagate to the downstream reaches affects the stabilities of the overall river regime. Studies show that the barrier river reach can block the upstream channel adjustment from propagating to the downstream reaches; therefore, it plays a key role in stabilizing the river regime. This study investigates 34 single-thread river reaches in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. On the basis of the systematic summarization of the fluvial process of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the control factors of barrier river reach are summarized and extracted: the planar morphology of single-thread and meandering; with no flow deflecting node distributed in the upper or middle part of the river reach; the hydraulic geometric coefficient is less than 4; the longitudinal gradient is greater than 12‰, the clay content of the concave bank is greater than 9.5%, and the median diameter of the bed sediment is greater than 0.158 mm. From the Navier-Stokes equation, the calculation formula of the bending radius of flow dynamic axis is deduced, and then the roles of these control factors on restricting the migration of the flow dynamic axis and the formation of the barrier river reach are analyzed. The barrier river reach is considered as such when the ratio of the migration force of the flow dynamic axis to the constraint force of the channel boundary is less than 1 under different flow levels. The mechanism of the barrier river reach is Journal of Geographical Sciences such that even when the upstream river regime adjusts, the channel boundary of this reach can always constrain the migration amplitude of the flow dynamic axis and centralize the planar position of the main stream line under different upstream river regime conditions, providing a relatively stable incoming flow conditions for the downstream reaches, thereby blocking the upstream river regime adjustment from propagating to the downstream reaches.
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