How Do Weather Conditions Influence Leisure Traffic? Evidence from Michigan and Implications for Climate Change

Abstract

Understanding of the nature of the relationship between weather conditions and participation in outdoor recreation and tourism remains relatively limited, despite the need to better comprehend these dynamics in order to prepare for the implications of projected increases in climate variability and climate change. This study addressed this gap through quantification of the relationships between daily weather conditions and leisure traffic activity throughout the US state of Michigan. Using a double-log model, daily leisure traffic counts were regressed against three sets of independent variables—weather conditions, economic conditions, and the availability of leisure time—across the four seasons. Daily maximum temperature had a statistically significant, positive effect on tourism traffic in spring, summer, and fall, with a slightly less pronounced impact in winter. Precipitation, in contrast, had a minimal impact on leisure traffic in spring, summer, and fall, but a negative impact in winter. These findings have implications not only for the current management and marketing of Michigan outdoor recreation and tourism providers, but also for the potential adaptation strategies they might consider adopting under conditions of climate change. In order to best capitalize on the opportunities presented by the changing climate, providers are advised to consider factors such as changing season length and diversification into additional, year-round activities and facilities. For winter sports providers, the ability to make snow will become increasingly critical.

Evaluating Local Climate Policy: Municipal Action Plans through the Lens of Resilience and Environmental Justice

“…Global rising temperatures are likely to contribute to rapid changes in Great Lakes water levels (33). This rise in average temperatures is expected to shorten the winter season for sporting activities, thus harming the outdoor recreation industry and adjacent local economies (34)(35)(36). Other sectors, such as agriculture and forestry, are expected to face significant stress from climate-induced heatwaves, droughts, soil erosion, and more favorable conditions for pests and pathogens (37)(38).…”

Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review

“…In papers that explored impacts of multiple different weather variables, temperature, particularly maximum temperature, tended to be the best predictor of visitation and tourism spending [27,28]. The amount of leisure travel and visitation days to parks and public lands tended to be higher in days or months that are warmer [e.g., [29][30][31][32][33]. However, many places did see a temperature threshold above which visitation drops; this threshold varied by setting and location, but tended to be around 25˚C (77˚F) for U.S. national parks [27,29,34].…”

Big Data for Big Insights: Quantifying the Adverse Effect of Air Pollution on the Tourism Industry in China

“…Adequate snow is mandatory for ski resorts (Gorman-Murray 2008; Hopkins 2015; Williams, Dossa, and Hunt 1997). Weather variables like temperature, wind, and snow depth were found to significantly affect various tourism outcomes, such as visitation to different tourism places (Becken 2013; Shih and Nicholls 2011, 2012; Shih, Nicholls, and Holecek 2009), tourist satisfaction with a destination (Vojtko et al 2020), and tourism spending (Wilkins et al 2018), even though urban tourists are more weather resilient (McKercher et al 2015). Such as people travel to warm destinations to escape the cold of winter (Becken and Wilson 2013; Wall 2007).…”