How backup plans can harm goal pursuit: The unexpected downside of being prepared for failure

Controlling the Resit Effect by Means of Investment Depreciation

“…Interestingly, very similar to the resit effect reported here, recent research suggests that backup plans may lead to a reduced probability of achieving one’s goal by the first-choice plan (Napolitano & Freund, 2017; Shin & Milkman, 2016). As for the resit effect (e.g., Grabe, 1994), such effects of backup plans have been ascribed, at least in part, to negative effects on people’s motivation and effort to pursue the goal through Plan A (Napolitano & Freund, 2016, 2017; Shin & Milkman, 2016). As suggested by Shin and Milkman (2016), such effects may be mediated by a decreased desire to attain the primary goal.…”

“…In the broader context of the recent literature on second chances and backup plans, that we referred to at the start of the introduction, a resit exam would seem to provide a particularly simple and clear example of a backup plan or, more precisely, a contingent backup plan, defined by Napolitano and Freund (2016) as a backup plan that links future actions to specific contingency conditions associated with failure of first-choice plans. Whereas such backup plans typically are intentionally developed and then held in reserve, which may introduce practical advance costs and detract resources from developing and using the first-choice plan (Napolitano & Freund, 2016; for exceptions, see Shin & Milkman, 2016), resit exams require no such advance investments from students. This greatly simplifies the development of formal models to compare different strategies in terms of associated expected utilities, as we did in the current paper.…”

“…As for the resit effect (e.g., Grabe, 1994), such effects of backup plans have been ascribed, at least in part, to negative effects on people’s motivation and effort to pursue the goal through Plan A (Napolitano & Freund, 2016, 2017; Shin & Milkman, 2016). As suggested by Shin and Milkman (2016), such effects may be mediated by a decreased desire to attain the primary goal. Our model suggests a quite different account, however, as it shows how negative effects of a second chance or backup plan on the effort invested in the first chance, or first-choice plan, need not reflect decreased motivation to achieve the goal.…”

“…This depreciation factor can be generalized to the question of the extent to which resources and effort invested in pursuing a goal in the first attempt, or with the first-choice plan, might benefit performance success in the second attempt, or backup plan. This factor appears to have received little or no attention in the literature on the effects of backup plans so far, with all of the studies in this field that we know of using virtually complete depreciation, or lack of transfer, from the first-choice plan to the backup plan (Napolitano & Freund, 2016, 2017; Shin & Milkman, 2016). The strong modulation by the level of depreciation of the resit effect found in the present study, suggests that potentially related effects of backup plans may be similarly modulated by degree and type of transfer between first-choice and backup plans.…”

“…Recently, however, two lines of investigation have provided evidence that choice behavior may change in interesting ways when the prospect of a second chance is introduced. In one line of research it was found that the availability of a second opportunity to achieve a goal may lead to a reduced probability of achieving this goal in a first opportunity to do so (Napolitano & Freund, 2016; see also Shin & Milkman, 2016; Napolitano & Freund, 2017). In a second line of work, studies on the effects of resit exams – the opportunity to re-do a failed exam in order to pass a course – suggest that study-time investment for a first exam may be substantially lower if a resit is available (Kooreman, 2013a; Nijenkamp, Nieuwenstein, De Jong, & Lorist, 2016; Michaelis & Schwanebeck, 2016).…”