How Are Inflation Expectations of Enterprises Formed: Survey Results

Karlova, Natalia; Puzanova, E. V.; Bogacheva, I. V.; Morozov, Alexander

doi:10.1134/s1075700720050093

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 7 publications

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“…The issues of assessing the impact of inflation expectations and sentiments as a channel of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on economic systems are studied in the works of Karlova N.A. [21], Polyakova E.V., Vymyatnina Yu.V. [22], Balatsky E.V.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of factors of regional economic stability using the XGBoost algorithm

Granitsa¹

2022

Human Resource Management Within the Framework of Realisation of National Development Goals and Strategic Objectives

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In modern conditions, the regions of Russia acquire a special role and are evaluated as independent economic entities. In a pandemic, the key factor for successful development at the meso-level is not so much the growth of well-being, the quality of life, but the preservation of the stability of economic systems, their ability to withstand external influences. Thus, in our study, we equate the economic stability and economic security of the regions. To assess economic stability, it is advisable, in our opinion, to use a group of indicators characterising resource provision, investment climate and the efficiency of functioning of regions. We assigned the rank of economic security to all regions, on the basis of which the regions were divided into two classes – economically safe and economically unsafe. The ensemble machine learning algorithm XGBoost was chosen as a method for factor analysis of economic security. The constructed classification model was interpreted by us using the Shap algorithm, which assumes the analysis of Shapley values for each economic determinant. The applied algorithms allowed us to identify significant factors that determine stable regions. These factors include investment risk, human development index and the ratio of the balanced financial result to the gross regional product.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of factors of regional economic stability using the XGBoost algorithm

Granitsa¹

2022

Human Resource Management Within the Framework of Realisation of National Development Goals and Strategic Objectives

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Appraising Inflation Expectations in Russia in the Period of 2015–2020

Somova

Shilov

2021

jour

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The paper reviews techniques for measuring inflation expectations in Russia in the period from 2015 to 2020. In the tree methods under review, which comprise adaptive expectations, stock exchange indicators, and sociological surveys of the Bank of Russia, the authors found both common and distinguishing features. All the reviewed methods demonstrated that inflation expectations remain high in Russia despite the relatively stable rates of the last few years on the level of 4–5 %. When estimated by the adaptive method in 2015–2020, the inflation expectations stayed between 0.5 and 6.2 %. The adaptive expectations allow a simplified approach to estimation as they depend on the level of the previous period’s inflation and do not react to economic shocks in the short term. The method of stock exchange indicators estimated the inflation expectations dynamics from 2.5 up to 8.6 %. Thanks to the opportunity of daily monitoring inflation expectations, this method is better at analyzing factors that impact the sentiments of market agents. A comparative analysis of approaches to estimating inflation expectations revealed that expectations according to sociological surveys of the Bank of Russia happened to surpass the actual inflation. In the period 2015–2020 the level of inflation expectations varied between 8 and 17 %, which is much higher than Russia’s inflation level.l.

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Monetization of the Economies as a Priority of the New Monetary Policy in the Face of Economic Sanctions

Zenchenko

Strielkowski

Smutka

et al. 2022

JRFM

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The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of monetization as a priority of the new monetary growth of the economies using the example of the Russian economy, identifying new trends in global practices of monetary factor management, as well as the search for ways to stimulate economic growth using the best international experience. Our paper tackles the novel research question of whether changing the priorities of monetary policy from targeting (and curbing) inflation to stimulating economic growth might yield more favorable economic results and what best world practices should be appropriately introduced in Russia to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. The key results of the paper are focused on a comparative analysis of the economies’ development under the influence of monetary factors in comparison with the most progressive economies, the study of the best practices for increasing the monetization of national economies, and the identification of recommendations for determining the most optimal way to increase economic growth through the monetization of the economy. Monetarist views on the decisive role of fiat money in the development of the real sector of the economy, capital markets, payment and settlement systems, the standard of living of the population, and other important aspects of macro- and microeconomics have become the mainstream of government regulation. It seemed that by finding the right indicators of the relationship between interest rates, GDP, and inflation, all problems of economic growth could be solved. By increasing the amount of money faster than the achieved economic growth, it was believed that it was possible to stimulate GDP growth through monetary investments and credit, i.e., more money was issued than the value produced represented by the goods and services. Accordingly, new money that had no value had to create new value. We argue that monetization can be seen as the main factor in providing such incentives. Our results can be useful for central bankers, policymakers, and stakeholders in the banking and financial sector. The conclusions and recommendations of the authors are based on studies conducted using such research methods as content analysis, logical analysis, and statistical analysis.

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How Are Inflation Expectations of Enterprises Formed: Survey Results

Cited by 3 publications

References 7 publications

Assessment of factors of regional economic stability using the XGBoost algorithm

Assessment of factors of regional economic stability using the XGBoost algorithm

Appraising Inflation Expectations in Russia in the Period of 2015–2020

Monetization of the Economies as a Priority of the New Monetary Policy in the Face of Economic Sanctions

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