Household and education projections by means of a microsimulation model

Nelissen, J.H.M.

doi:10.1016/0264-9993(91)90029-n

Cited by 24 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…However, such a sample is not available. A usable sample can be derived from the 1947 Census data; see Nelissen (1991Nelissen ( , 1994. So, the model simulates all events from 1947.…”

Section: The Microsimulation Model Nedymas ~mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lifetime income redistribution by the old-age state pension in The Netherlands

Nelissen¹

1995

Journal of Public Economics

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Lifetime income redistribution by the old-age state pension in The NetherlandsNelissen, J.H.M. General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.-Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research -You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain -You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright, please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. AbstractThis paper looks at how the Dutch General Old-Age Pensions Act impacts the distribution of equivalent lifetime income, using a dynamic cross-sectional microsimulation model. Considering both vertical and horizontal redistributional effects, the paper shows that lifetime redistribution is considerably smaller than the redistribution measured on the basis of a period approach. The horizontal lifetime redistribution is more important than the vertical one, but this effect is rather limited, in particular due to the increasing premium percentages in combination with the regressive nature of the contribution levying.

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“…However, such a sample is not available. A usable sample can be derived from the 1947 Census data; see Nelissen (1991Nelissen ( , 1994. So, the model simulates all events from 1947.…”

Section: The Microsimulation Model Nedymas ~mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, it should be noted that from 1991 onwards the social security premiums were determined endogenously on the basis of simulated benefits and income. A comparison of simulated data with real data can be found in Nelissen (1991Nelissen ( , 1993.…”

Section: The Microsimulation Model Nedymas ~mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lifetime income redistribution by the old-age state pension in The Netherlands

Nelissen¹

1995

Journal of Public Economics

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“…Microsimulation household models are virtually probabilistic (Hammel et al 1976;Wachter 1987;Smith 1987;Galler 1988;Nelissen 1991;Oskamp 1997). These models take individuals as the unit of analysis, simulate each demographic event, and determine the changes in individual status usually using Monte Carlo methods combined with probability distributions for transition rates (Wachter 1998).…”

Section: Microsimulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a New Model for Probabilistic Household Forecasts

Jiang¹,

O’Neill

2004

Int Statistical Rev

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Summary Household projections are key components of analyses of several issues of social concern, including the welfare of the elderly, housing, and environmentally significant consumption patterns. Researchers or policy makers that use such projections need appropriate representations of uncertainty in order to inform their analyses. However, the weaknesses of the traditional approach of providing alternative variants to single “best guess” projection are magnified in household projections, which have many output variables of interest, and many input variables beyond fertility, mortality, and migration. We review current methods of household projections and the potential for using them to produce probabilistic projections, which would address many of these weaknesses. We then propose a new framework for a household projection method of intermediate complexity that we believe is a good candidate for providing a basis for further development of probabilistic household projections. An extension of the traditional headship rate approach, this method is based on modelling changes in headship rates decomposed by household size as a function of variables describing demographic events such as parity specific fertility, union formation and dissolution, and leaving home. It has moderate data requirements, manageable complexity, allows for direct specification of demographic events, and produces output that includes the most important household characteristics for many applications. An illustration of how such a model might be constructed, using data on the U.S. and China over the past several decades, demonstrates the viability of the approach.

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“…However, there is not just one accepted theory or only one generally accepted value for an elasticity (Nelissen, 1991(Nelissen, , 1993. Recent results of a study done by the CPB (CPB, 2005) based on Dutch data from 1996-2000, suggest the elasticity to be at least 2.5.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar attempts have been made to build a Dutch microsimulation model for evaluating social security schemes (e.g. Nelissen, 1991 andNelissen, 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Microsimulation Analysis of the 2006 Regime Change in the Dutch Disability Scheme

Sonsbeek

Gradus

2005

SSRN Journal

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This paper introduces a microsimulation model that simulates the budgetary impact of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme. A dynamic population model fits the case of the disability benefits the best. As opposed to macro forecasts, a microsimulation can answer questions about the individual or meso income effects, the exact distribution of expenses among different benefits and the time path of the savings. The introduction of the proposed system change decreases the number of disability benefits by more than 25% from 2020 onwards and reduces total costs by almost € 2 billion or 20%. Based on the better incentive structure, participation will increase and boost GDP. Microsimulation can be used to pick the winners and losers of the new system and give the time path of the savings. It is shown that for almost all partially disabled that are working, the total discounted income after the system change is as large as or larger than before the system change, for the non-working total discounted income is lower.

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Household and education projections by means of a microsimulation model

Cited by 24 publications

References 4 publications

Lifetime income redistribution by the old-age state pension in The Netherlands

Lifetime income redistribution by the old-age state pension in The Netherlands

Toward a New Model for Probabilistic Household Forecasts

A Microsimulation Analysis of the 2006 Regime Change in the Dutch Disability Scheme

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