House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union

Stepanyan, Vahram; Poghosyan, Tigran; Bibolov, Aidyn

doi:10.5089/9781455200634.001

Cited by 34 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Hence, studies on determinants of house prices have been the subject of a growing body of analysis. The identified determinants of house prices include supply factors such as the availability of land and construction activities, and demand factors such as interest rates, inflation, wages or income, mortgage loans and the population (Hofmann, 2004;Tsatsaronis and Zhu, 2004;Stepanyan, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Namibian context, the housing market has experienced a substantial increase in house prices (Stepanyan et al, 2010;Brown, 2013). In 2015 for example, the Namibian housing market experienced the second highest increase in house prices in the world, after Dubai, owing to the large disparity between demand and supply of houses (Affirmative repositioning, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Stepanyan (2010) recognized that the housing prices in Namibia can be explained by demand-side factors such as the real GDP, interest rates, consumer price index, nominal wages, mortgage loans and the population growth. This suggests that the Namibian housing market is influenced by internal factors, mostly related to a shortage of housing supply, and external macroeconomic factors, which mostly affect the housing demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market

Sunde¹,

Muzindutsi²

2017

The Journal of Developing Areas

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The demand for and supply of housing are heterogeneous and differ across countries, provinces and cities. In the Namibian context, the housing market has experienced a substantial increase in house prices. Such an unexpected growth rate in house prices suggests that the Namibian housing market may not be sustainable in the long term. This means that there is a high probability of a housing price bubble in Namibia if the house prices continue to increase. The aim of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of endogenous and exogenous determinants of house prices and new construction activity in Namibia. This study also attempted to establish whether there is evidence of overvaluation of house prices in the Namibian housing market and this is important in identifying the possibility of a housing price bubble in Namibia. In addition, the study is relevant during the current period where Namibia is faced with a continuous increase in house prices. A restricted VAR model with a Johansen cointegration approach was used to analyse monthly data from January 2000 to December 2014. The selection of the data set was aimed at providing representatives for various housing demand drivers and housing supply determinants. For modelling on the supply side, new construction investment as a percentage of GDP was employed. The other variables incorporated as exogenous variables include the economic growth rate, the consumer price index, nominal wages as a percentage of GDP, the short-term interest rate, mortgage loans as a share of GDP and population in the 15-64 cohort as a percentage of GDP. Results show that the house price index in Namibia has proved more sensitive to changes in population, mortgage loans and inflation; whereas the construction activities were found to be more sensitive to the house price index and inflation. Granger causality results show that there is a bidirectional causality between the house price index and new construction activity in Namibia. The study therefore found evidence of overvaluation of house prices in the Namibian housing market, which may lead to a house price bubble in the Namibian economy. Namibian policymakers, through the Bank of Namibia, should come up with policies which ensure that the majority of mortgages given by the banks are for constructing new houses instead of financing the purchase of existing houses. JEL Classifications: C32; E37; D40

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market

Sunde¹,

Muzindutsi²

2017

The Journal of Developing Areas

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“…Table 3 contains a list of the determinants with corresponding signs in regressions ("+" or "-"), which are grouped in broad categories. This list is far from being exhaustive and is based on the results of 18 papers in this area, namely: Abraham and Hendershott (1996), Blackley and Follain (1991), Borowiecki (2009), Clapp andGiaccotto (1994), Égert and Mihaljek (2007), Follain and Velz (1995), Glindro et al (2011), Hlaváček andKomárek (2009), Hort (1998), Hua andCraig (2011), Iacoviello (2002), Lee (2009), Mahalik and Mallick (2011), Ozanne and Thibodeau (1983),Özsoy and Ş ahin (2009), Poterba (1991), Stepanyan et al (2010), and Sutton (2002). It shows both the total number of uses of a determinant (columns 2 through 4) and the proportion of the uses (columns 5 through 7).…”

Section: Determinants Of Housing Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban House Prices: A Tale of 48 Cities

Kholodilin

Ulbricht

2015

Economics

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In this paper, the authors construct a unique data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities across 24 countries. The data collected between January and May 2012 from 33 websites, are drawn from Internet advertisements of dwellings. Using the resulting sample of more than 1,000,000 announcements, the authors compute the quality-adjusted city-specific house prices. Based on this information, they investigate the determinants of the apartment prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the dwelling price level using Bayesian Model Averaging: Population density, mortgage per capita, income inequality, and unemployment rate. The results are robust to applying two alternative estimation techniques: OLS and quantile regression. Based on the auhors´ estimation results they are able to identify cities where the prices are overvalued. This is a useful indication of a build-up of house price bubbles. JEL C21 R31

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“…Housing cost has increased dramatically in the last four decades. Hence, housing within the literature is described as a problematic economic issue facing developed as well as developing countries (Alaghbari et al 2011;Groenhart 2010;Stepanyan, Poghosyan & Bibolov 2010), but poor and disadvantaged people seem to be far more affected. Different strategies, policies and regulations have been established to help those people to rent or purchase a house.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning, policy and performance: an evaluation of the effectiveness of the social housing policy of Oman

Nasiri¹,

Marzouq²

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Housing low income households is a major concern of governments across the world. To address this issue and help raise the living standards of low income Omani citizens, the Omani Government established a social housing policy in 1973. The outcomes of this policy and the effectiveness of its implementation have not been formally examined, so the main focus of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the social housing policy in achieving its objectives. As the objectives of the social housing policy are to provide social housing that is adequate for its purpose and to provide a sufficient number of social housing units, this project assesses these two aspects: 1. 'housing adequacy' (physically and qualitatively adequate housing) and 2. 'housing demand' (sufficient quantity of housing, now and into the foreseeable future). The Omani social housing policy is composed of three programs, each with different purposes. The social housing units provided by the Residential Units Program were chosen for the adequacy aspect of the evaluation while the number of households which benefited from this program and the other two programs, the Housing Assistance Program and the Housing Loans Program, were examined to identify the current and future demand for social housing in Oman.A mixed methods approach, including both primary and secondary data with qualitative and quantitative methods, was employed in this research. The primary data included survey questionnaires, interviews with policy makers, and site visits. A total of 330 face to face questionnaires were conducted with randomly selected household heads living in social housing.These houses were provided during the period 2001 to 2010 in five wilayats (cities): Al Rostaq, Nizwa, Sur, Ibri, and Al Buraimi. Six (6) face to face interviews were carried out with purposively selected officials of the Ministry of Housing. Site visits for the observation and documentation of the quality of houses were also conducted. The secondary data included policy documents, executive regulations, and official population statistics and projections. In regard to the social housing demand evaluation, the social housing waiting lists were examined to identify the current demand (till the end of 2014) and an assessment based on population projections and the official budget allocations was applied to estimate the demand and supply of future social housing in Oman (to 2020 and to 2030).The concept of housing adequacy, in this study, encompasses seven components namely: legal security of tenure, affordability, the services provided, habitability, accessibility, location, and cultural adequacy. These components are based on UN-HABITAT indicators but were modified to ii suit the Omani social, economic, and cultural context. The modifications have resulted in a model that includes twelve indicators that were assessed objectively by using quantifiable standards as well as subjectively by gaining household heads' perceptions and views. The new modified model contributes to the body of kn...

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House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union

Cited by 34 publications

References 4 publications

Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market

Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market

Urban House Prices: A Tale of 48 Cities

Planning, policy and performance: an evaluation of the effectiveness of the social housing policy of Oman

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