No abstract

Abstract:The study investigated the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in South Africa using cointegration and error correction modelling and; the Granger causality tests. The results of the study show that economic growth is explained by the financial sector variables and control variables such as inflation, exchange rate, and real interest rates. The Granger causality test results show that there is generally a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and financial sector development which implies that if the economy grows the financial services sector also grows and vice versa.

The demand for and supply of housing are heterogeneous and differ across countries, provinces and cities. In the Namibian context, the housing market has experienced a substantial increase in house prices. Such an unexpected growth rate in house prices suggests that the Namibian housing market may not be sustainable in the long term. This means that there is a high probability of a housing price bubble in Namibia if the house prices continue to increase. The aim of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of endogenous and exogenous determinants of house prices and new construction activity in Namibia. This study also attempted to establish whether there is evidence of overvaluation of house prices in the Namibian housing market and this is important in identifying the possibility of a housing price bubble in Namibia. In addition, the study is relevant during the current period where Namibia is faced with a continuous increase in house prices. A restricted VAR model with a Johansen cointegration approach was used to analyse monthly data from January 2000 to December 2014. The selection of the data set was aimed at providing representatives for various housing demand drivers and housing supply determinants. For modelling on the supply side, new construction investment as a percentage of GDP was employed. The other variables incorporated as exogenous variables include the economic growth rate, the consumer price index, nominal wages as a percentage of GDP, the short-term interest rate, mortgage loans as a share of GDP and population in the 15-64 cohort as a percentage of GDP. Results show that the house price index in Namibia has proved more sensitive to changes in population, mortgage loans and inflation; whereas the construction activities were found to be more sensitive to the house price index and inflation. Granger causality results show that there is a bidirectional causality between the house price index and new construction activity in Namibia. The study therefore found evidence of overvaluation of house prices in the Namibian housing market, which may lead to a house price bubble in the Namibian economy. Namibian policymakers, through the Bank of Namibia, should come up with policies which ensure that the majority of mortgages given by the banks are for constructing new houses instead of financing the purchase of existing houses. JEL Classifications: C32; E37; D40

Abstract:The main purpose of the research was to establish the sources of unemployment in Namibia for the period 1980 to 2013 using the SVAR methodology. Empirical results show that persistently high unemployment is the result of a combination of various shocks as well as the hysteresis mechanism. The impulse response functions and variance decomposition functions agree that labour supply, aggregate demand, and real wages seem to be the critical factors affecting unemployment. Moreover, the price shocks affect unemployment in the long run and productivity shocks explain only a small fraction of the forecast error variance decomposition of unemployment in both the short run and long run. This finding is consistent with the controversy of uncertain effects of productivity shocks on the unemployment rate. Aggregate demand policies, deregulation policies and structural labour market reforms can be useful policy instruments to tackle unemployment in Namibia.

Problem statement:The main purpose of the study was to explore the levels of concentration in Zimbabwe's grain-milling industry during period . The study could not be extended to periods after 2005 because the situation in the country had become economically chaotic. Approach: The methodology adopted involved the calculation of the concentration indices such as the Herfindall-Hirschman index, Hannah and Kay index, the Entropy index and the Four-Firm Concentration ratio. Results: The study revealed that liberalisation of the industry reduced seller concentration levels. The response to deregulation in this particular sector confirms the theoretical expectation that liberalisation promotes competition and reduces market power of existing firms, which is also consistent with the world-wide trends. Conclusion: The policies adopted at the inception of Economic Structural Adjustment Programmed (ESAP) should be pursued more vigorously to create a manufacturing base which is open to competition and which is insulated from adverse effects of possible manipulation by a few large firms. Policy should be aimed at maintaining affordability of the basic commodities to the consumers as well as ensuring viability to the manufacturers. With high levels of industrial concentration, producers are able to operate at a higher-cost system without losing market share, but this is to the detriment of the consumers.