Horses for courses: analytical tools to explore planetary boundaries

Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Lucas, Paul L.; Häyhä, Tiina; Cornell, Sarah; Smith, Mark S.

doi:10.5194/esd-7-267-2016

Cited by 37 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Given the importance of cross-scale feedbacks for understanding local water use, it is essential that smallerscale studies on food and water security can be linked with regional-and global-scale models (Pande and Sivapalan, 2016;Sivapalan and Blöschl, 2015;Verburg and Overmars, 2009). The model framework presented can be used to under- The multi-agent network sits at the interface between an IAM and an ecohydrological model.…”

Section: Applications Of the Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Dermody¹,

Sivapalan²,

Stehfest³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

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Section: Applications Of the Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Dermody¹,

Sivapalan²,

Stehfest³

et al. 2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Note that this figure adds specificity to the conceptual diagram included as figure 1 in van Vuuren et al (2016) by including particular modeling systems. In addition to including the individual modeling systems from this review, we also include some model types as a point of comparison.…”

Section: Categorization Of Modeling Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the specific approach should use 'appropriate computational and conceptual frameworks' (Palmer and Smith 2014). 'As fully integrated models can become too complex, the appropriate type of model (the racehorse) should be applied for answering the target research question (the race course) ' (van Vuuren et al 2016). Verburg et al (2016) suggest that 'plug-and-play component programming' could help address these limitations, enabling the development of tailored modeling systems and model intercomparisons.…”

Section: Suggestions For Future Directions As Noted In the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, complexity refers to process complexity; however, when process complexity is identical, we factor in spatial and temporal resolution to distinguish modeling frameworks. Relative positioning is based on van Vuuren et al (2016) and expert judgment of the authors. component models and information exchanged for each of these systems.…”

Section: Summary Of Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions

Calvin¹,

Bond‐Lamberty²

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Research on humans and the Earth system has historically occurred separately, with different teams and models devoted to each. Increasingly, however, these communities and models are becoming intricately linked. In this review, we survey the literature on integrated human-Earth system models, quantify the direction and strength of feedbacks in those models, and put them in context of other, more frequently considered, feedbacks in the Earth system. We find that such feedbacks have the potential to alter both human and Earth systems; however, there is significant uncertainty in these results, and the number of truly integrated studies remains small. More research, more models, and more studies are needed to robustly quantify the sign and magnitude of human-Earth system feedbacks. Integrating human and earth models entails significant complexity and cost, and researchers should carefully assess the costs and benefits of doing so with respect to the object of study.

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“…Additionally, this choice might take the form of a dilemma where we can either pursue our development and adaptation pathway and put many generations to come at a persistent risk of technological or management failure, or get on a transformation pathway that sacrifices part of the welfare of one or a few generations to enable all later generations to prosper at much lower levels of risk.While all this might seem exaggerated, we believe that as long as there is a non-negligible possibility that, indeed, we face such a dilemma, it is worthwhile thinking about its implications, in particular its ethical consequences for the current generation. The contribution we aim at making in this article is, hence, not a descriptive one such as trying to assess policy options or other aspects of humanity's agency, as in integrated assessment modeling [14], or their biospherical impacts, as in Earth system modeling, or the dynamics of the Anthropocene that arises from feedbacks between biophysical, socio-metabolic, and socio-cultural processes, as in the emerging discipline of "World-Earth modeling" [2][3][4][5][13][14][15]. Instead, we aim at making a normative contribution that studies some ethical aspects of the described possible dilemma, independently of whether this dilemma really currently exists.…”

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confidence: 99%

A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System

2018

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We introduce and analyze a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of anthropogenic climate change. In this exercise, each generation can choose between two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as the current one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyze this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics, and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Across these different approaches, we confirm the intuition that a focus on the long-term future makes the first option more attractive while a focus on equality across generations favors the second. Despite this, we generally find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches, suggesting a strong dependence on the choice of the normative framework used. This implies that policy measures selected to achieve targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals can depend strongly on the normative framework applied and specific care needs to be taken with regard to the choice of such frameworks.Since a later voluntary or involuntary phase-out of many climate engineering measures can have even more disruptive effects than natural tipping elements [11], one should, of course, also be concerned that a focus on climate engineering and, maybe to a somewhat lower degree, also a focus on adaptation might increase humanity's dependence on large-scale infrastructure and fragile technology to much higher levels than we learned to deal with, posing a growing risk of not being able to manage these systems forever.While one might argue that there does not need to be a strict choice between either mitigation or adaptation, the presence of tipping elements in both the natural Earth system and in social systems [12], and the likelihood of nonlinear feedback loops between them [13], suggests that only significant mitigation efforts will avoid natural tipping, and only significant socio-economic measures will cause the "social" tipping into a decarbonized world economy that is no longer fundamentally based on the combustion of fossil fuels. This means the current generation may face a mainly qualitative rather than a quantitative choice: do or do not initiate a rapid decarbonization? Additionally, this choice might take the form of a dilemma where we can either pursue our development and adaptation pathway and put many generations to come at a persistent risk of technological or management failure, or get on a transformation pathway that sacrifices part of the welfare of one or a few generations to enable all later generations to prosper at much lower levels of risk.While all th...

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Horses for courses: analytical tools to explore planetary boundaries

Cited by 37 publications

References 51 publications

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions

A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System

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