Hoping for more: The influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities

Abstract

People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative quantities of two options. We investigated how directional motives influence sampling selections and resulting predictions in such cases. We used a paradigm in which participants had limited time to sample items and make predictions about which side of the screen contained more of a critical item. Sampling selections were biased by monetary desirability manipulations, and participants exhibited a desirability bias for both dichotmous and continuous predictions. People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative quantities of two options. We investigated how directional motives influence sampling selections and resulting predictions in such cases. We used a paradigm in which participants had limited time to sample items and make predictions about which side of the screen contained more of a critical item. Sampling selections were biased by monetary desirability manipulations, and participants exhibited a desirability bias for both dichotmous and continuous predictions. .

Strength of affective reaction as a signal to think carefully

“…Additional research is needed to identify when and why bias will increase or decrease. One possibility is offered by findings that optimism can result from a tendency to sample more from sets that people desire to view as likely (because they can result in larger rewards) than sets that are less motivating (Scherer, Windschitl, O'Rourke, & Smith, 2012). Thus, although increased sampling is a form of analytic processing, in some situations it could result in optimism, rather than a reduction in bias as was the case in the current investigation.…”

Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It

“…The effects of desirability on likelihood judgments were small but significant in all of these studies. The fact that the desirability biases on likelihood judgments were significant in all three of our studies is somewhat surprising, given that researchers have had only limited success in detecting such effects on likelihood judgments (Bar‐Hillel & Budescu, ; Bilgin, ; Price & Marquez, ; Scherer, Windschitl, O'Rourke, & Smith, ; Vosgerau, ; Windschitl et al, ; for a review see Krizan & Windschitl, ).…”

Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention

“…One way in which, in reality, people might be able to lessen the impact of negative information is through biased information search (for a meta-analytic review see Hart, Albarracín, Eagly, Brechan, Lindberg, & Merrill, 2009), which would counter the Severity effect. Although in the extreme such a process would inevitably result in optimistic beliefs (see, e.g., Scherer, Windschitl, O'Rourke, & Smith, 2012, who demonstrated overestimates of the likelihood of positive outcomes over negative outcomes as a result of biased information search), once again the current conceptualisation demonstrates the separability of different and distinguishable elements of the process.…”