Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

Balmaseda, Magdalena; Smith, G. C. Moore; Haines, Keith; Anderson, David L. T.; Palmer, Tim; Vidard, Arthur

doi:10.1029/2007gl031645

Cited by 54 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Nevertheless, the interannual maximum AMOC variability in our model with a standard deviation of 0.59 Sv-0.83 Sv, is comparable with values of the historical AMOC reconstruction of Balmaseda et al (2007). The historical AMOC reconstruction of Balmaseda et al (2007) at 50…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

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Evaluation of a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) set-up to study the interannual to decadal variability in the deep-water formation rates

et al. 2013

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The characteristics of a global setup of the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) under forcing of the period 1958-2004 are presented. The model setup is designed to study the variability in the deep-water mass formation areas and was therefore regionally better resolved in the deep-water formation areas in the Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea, Weddell Sea and Ross Sea. The sea-ice model reproduces realistic sea-ice distributions and variabilities in the sea ice extent of both hemispheres as well as sea ice transport that compares well with observational data. Based on a comparison between model and Ocean Weather Ship data in the North Atlantic, we observe that the vertical structure is well captured in areas with a high resolution. In our model setup we are able to simulate decadal ocean variability including several salinity anomaly events and corresponding fingerprint in the vertical hydrography. The ocean state of the model setup features pronounced variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as well as the associated mixed layer depth pattern in the North Atlantic deep-water formation areas.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…• N. Further, the reconstruction of Balmaseda et al (2007)shows an above average AMOC strength in the middle and late 1970s, which deviates from our findings. However, a principal problem for estimate AMOC from observational data is related to the fact that one has to take into account for both variability and observational uncertainty.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Evaluation of a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) set-up to study the interannual to decadal variability in the deep-water formation rates

et al. 2013

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“…Whether this is because AMOC variability near 248 and 488N is not coherent with that at the intergyre boundary near 408N, or some other reason relating to the analysis methods, is not yet clear. If one examines, however, the assimilation results of Balmaseda et al (2007, their Fig. 2) near 408N, where both the mean and the variability of the AMOC is maximal, one can see that periods of larger (smaller) AMOC strength are associated with the periods of southerly (northerly) Gulf Stream paths, as used in our composites (Figs.…”

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confidence: 99%

On the Path of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Joyce

Zhang

2010

Journal of Climate

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The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated in various ocean-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean numerical models often varies in time because of either forced or internal variability. The path of the Gulf Stream (GS) is one diagnostic variable that seems to be sensitive to the amplitude of the AMOC, yet previous modeling studies show a diametrically opposed relationship between the two variables. In this note this issue is revisited, bringing together ocean observations and comparisons with the GFDL Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1), both of which suggest a more southerly (northerly) GS path when the AMOC is relatively strong (weak). Also shown are some examples of possible diagnostics to compare various models and observations on the relationship between shifts in GS path and changes in AMOC strength in future studies.

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“…There is no widely accepted analysis product for the past ocean states equivalent to ERA40, and so several different ocean analysis products based on recent quality controlled ocean observational profiles (Ingleby & Huddleston 2007) have been used in the GCEP project (e.g. Balmaseda et al 2007;. The analysed atmospheric and oceanic conditions are then assimilated concurrently directly into the coupled climate model using a very simple nudging technique.…”

Section: The Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Haines

Hermanson

Putt

et al. 2008

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upperocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.Keywords: climate forecasting; decadal forecasting; coupled models; climate predictability Beyond scenario based climate predictionThe International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) monitors and assesses the evidence for climate change and the probable future scenarios of that change. The modelling that is used to assess these scenarios defines, as external drivers of the climate, concentrations of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases, atmospheric aerosols and the ongoing changes in the solar cycle. The climate models themselves consist of representations of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and cryosphere systems, although not all feedbacks between these systems are normally represented. Multiple runs of these models are made in order to average over the internally generated variability of the system, in order to give an estimate of the most probable climate evolution, rather than just one possible outcome. Furthermore, multi-model or multi-parameter results from the same

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Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

Cited by 54 publications

References 17 publications

Evaluation of a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) set-up to study the interannual to decadal variability in the deep-water formation rates

Evaluation of a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) set-up to study the interannual to decadal variability in the deep-water formation rates

On the Path of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

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