Historical Drought Assessment Over the Contiguous United States Using the Generalized Complementary Principle of Evapotranspiration

Kim, Daeha; Lee, Woo‐Seop; Kim, Seon Tae; Chun, Jong Ahn

doi:10.1029/2019wr024991

Cited by 31 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 116 publications

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“…By modifying the definitive derivation of Brutsaert (2015), Szilagyi et al (2017) generalized this principle with a polynomial approximation. The following studies have confirmed the superior performance of the GCR to sophisticated land surface models, reanalysis climate data, and even a state‐of‐the‐art spatial interpolation of flux observations (D. Kim et al, 2019; Ma & Szilagyi, 2019; Ma et al, 2019). More details about the GCR are given in Szilagyi et al (2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Moon

Timmermann

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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102

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Future greenhouse warming is expected to influence the characteristics of global monsoon systems. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Here we use 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to determine how the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian summer monsoon domain will change in response to greenhouse warming. Over East Asia the models simulate on average on the earlier onset and later retreat; whereas over India, the retreat will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. These results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon systems and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.Plain Language Summary Future climate change is expected to influence the characteristics of the global monsoon system. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Using 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we determine the impact of greenhouse warming on the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian subregional monsoon domains (East Asia, western North Pacific, India, and Indo-China Peninsula). Over East Asia the models simulate on average an earlier inception and a later termination of the summer rainy season, whereas over India, the termination will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. Our results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon system and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 74%

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Moon

Timmermann

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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102

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“…The timescale for summing ET and E p depends on users' interests. We chose the 12‐months timescale, because vegetation conditions tend to be correlated strongly with SEDI at 9‐months or longer timescales (Kim, Lee, et al., 2019). As recommended by Vicente‐Serrano et al.…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The timescale for summing ET and E p depends on users' interests. We chose the 12-months timescale, because vegetation conditions tend to be correlated strongly with SEDI at 9-months or longer timescales (Kim, Lee, et al, 2019). As recommended by Vicente-Serrano et al (2018), the cumulative probability F[•] was calculated with 3-parameter log-logistic (LL3) distributions and the probability weighted method.…”

Section: Drought Assessment With New Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recent definitive formulations of the E p –ET relationship have showed solid performance to regenerate observed latent heat fluxes and water‐balance ET under diverse climates (e.g., Brutsaert, Li, et al., 2017; R. D. Crago & Qualls, 2018; Ma et al., 2019; Ma & Szilagyi, 2019), and even captured human interventions on soil moisture dynamics (Szilagyi & Jozsa, 2018). Nonetheless, this useful tool seems merely viewed as a heuristic method for sub‐humid conditions (Vicente‐Serrano, McVicar, et al., 2019), and applications are limited to historical analyses (e.g., Kim, Lee, et al., 2019; Ma et al., 2019). This necessitates further validation and applications of this convenient principle to predict future hydrologic conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…D. Crago & Qualls, 2018;, and even captured human interventions on soil moisture dynamics (Szilagyi & Jozsa, 2018). Nonetheless, this useful tool seems merely viewed as a heuristic method for sub-humid conditions (Vicente-Serrano, McVicar, et al, 2019), and applications are limited to historical analyses (e.g., Kim, Lee, et al, 2019;. This necessitates further validation and applications of this convenient principle to predict future hydrologic conditions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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New Drought Projections Over East Asia Using Evapotranspiration Deficits From the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios

Kim

Yeo

2021

Earth's Future

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In this work, we projected future drought risks over East Asia from the perspective of evapotranspiration (ET) deficit using the new climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). For the regional drought projections, we employed a state‐of‐the‐art complementary relationship (CR) method to estimate ET and atmospheric evaporative demand (Ep) that quantify the combined impact of water deficiency and vapor pressure deficit stress. The performance of the CR method was validated using the reanalysis climate data and independent water‐balance ET estimates. The same CR method was again applied to hindcasts and projections of seven global climate models (GCM) in the CMIP6 archive. Results showed that the CR ET estimates and the GCM‐driven ET products were both able to approximately close the basin‐scale water balance and tightly correlated with each other. The application with the CMIP6 GCM hindcasts provided the same indication that the CR ET and the GCM‐driven ET are consistent. The drought assessments using the ET deficit (ET − Ep) from the CMIP6 projections implicates that future drought risks over East Asia would be much higher than indicated by precipitation or soil moisture projections. Rising trends of Ep are expected to outpace those of ET even under the medium‐level greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our new drought projections suggest that Ep amplified by soil water deficiency could raise agricultural and wildfire risks substantially by the end of the 21st century.

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Power-function expansion of the nondimensional complementary relationship of evaporation: the emergence of dual attractors

Szilágyi

Crago

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The polynomial form of the nondimensional complementary relationship (CR) follows from an isenthalpic process of evaporation under a constant surface available energy and unchanging wind. The exact polynomial expression results from rationally derived first and second-order boundary conditions (BC). By keeping the BCs, the polynomial can be extended into a two-parameter (a and b) power function for added flexibility. When a = b = 2 it reverts to the polynomial version. With the help of Australian FLUXNET data it is demonstrated that the power-function formulation excels among CR-based two-parameter models considered, even when a = 2 is prescribed to reduce the number of parameters to calibrate to two. The same powerfunction approach (a = 2) is then employed with a combination of different gridded monthly potential evaporation terms across Australia, while calibrating b against the multiyear simplified water-balance evaporation rate on a cell-by-cell basis. The resulting bi-modal histogram of the b values peaks first near b = 2 and then at b -1 (secondary modus), confirming earlier findings that occasionally a linear version (i.e., b = 1) of the CR yields the best estimates. It is further demonstrated that the linear form emerges when regional-scale transport of moist air is negligible toward the study area during its drying, while the more typical nonlinear CR version prevails otherwise. A thermodynamic-based explanation is yet to be found as to why the flexible power function curves (i.e., b [?] 2) converge to the polynomial one (b = 2) in such cases.

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Historical Drought Assessment Over the Contiguous United States Using the Generalized Complementary Principle of Evapotranspiration

Cited by 31 publications

References 116 publications

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

New Drought Projections Over East Asia Using Evapotranspiration Deficits From the CMIP6 Warming Scenarios

Power-function expansion of the nondimensional complementary relationship of evaporation: the emergence of dual attractors

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