Historic winter wheat yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas, the “Wheat State”

Abstract

Year‐to‐year weather variability and technologies (fertilizer, irrigation, herbicides, conservation tillage, varieties, mechanization, and others) are among factors that affect winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in water‐limited cropping systems. The objective of these analyses was to quantify winter wheat yield trends, variability, relationship with weather, yield gap, and value in the “Wheat State”, Kansas, USA. Two data sources were used for this study, i.e., annual winter wheat yield reported for selected counties from United States Departments of Agriculture (USDA) and the Kansas State University wheat variety performance trial (KWVPT) near Colby, Garden City, Hays, and Tribune, Kansas. Results of the study showed a decline in harvest area and inflation adjusted market value per area of winter wheat beginning in the 1930's. However, both the survey and research data showed continuous increase in winter wheat yield at rates of 3 to 180 kg ha−1 yr−1 that varied by irrigation, location, data source, or time range considered, except for a few years where yield stagnated or declined. Despite increased productivity, results indicated an increase in annual winter wheat yield variation over time. A positive correlation was observed between non‐irrigated wheat yield and all months of precipitation except for January, February, and June. October through December precipitation provided the best positive correlation with non‐irrigated wheat yield. Wheat yields negatively correlated with high temperature in months that coincided with wheat flowering and maturity. The yield gap between actual and potential wheat yield was estimated at 15 to 55%. The decreasing revenue per land area may be part of the reasons for decreasing wheat planting acreage over time. We concluded producers need to increase adoption of latest technology (varieties with drought and heat tolerance) and management to obtain yield potential. Research should investigate methods to increase the stability of state‐wide wheat production and financial return.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Historic corn yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas

“…After 1889, a significant annual variation in amount of corn production occurred for the years between 1890 and 1920s, with production declining to around 1 million Mg over the years from 1920s to the early 1960s (Figure 2b). During this time period, winter wheat was at its peak historical production area in Kansas (Holman et al, 2024). Starting in the early 1970s, total corn production increased by 311 kg year −1 to current production levels of 13-20 billion kg year −1 (Figure 2c).…”