Historic corn yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas

Abstract

World corn (Zea mays L.) production has tripled since the 1960s. However, without new breakthrough innovations the trend is expected to plateau or decrease in the future. The objective of this study was to quantify Kansas corn production, economic value, productivity, annual production variation, yield gap trends, and in due course, identify future areas for research. Corn variety performance tests and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data were used for this study. Results showed that the area planted to corn in Kansas increased from 0.5 million in 1880s to over 2 million ha by 2022, with an increase of 0.05 million ha year−1 between 1984 and 2022. The value of corn produced in Kansas also increased significantly from below $1 billion annually prior to 1990s to the current value of approximately $3–$4 billion. The average corn yield gain from 1972 to 2000 was 132 kg ha−1 year−1, which declined to 12 kg ha−1 year−1 during 2000 to the early 2020s. Also, a relatively high yield variability occurred from 1970 to the early 2020s compared with earlier years (1866–1970), and a 42%–68% gap between the potential and actual corn yields was identified. We concluded that there is a decrease in the rate of corn yield increase and developing farmer awareness and their adoption of new corn production technology, increasing longevity of the Ogallala Aquifer, and integrated research should be priorities to avert the decreasing trend of corn productivity and further increase corn economic value.