High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures

Nelson, James H.; Johnston, Josiah; Mileva, Ana; Fripp, Matthias; Hoffman, Ian M.; Petros-Good, A.; Blanco, Christian; Kammen, Daniel M.

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.01.031

Cited by 153 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…They report median VRE shares of total electricity consumption in the European Union of 11% without and 25% with climate policy by 2050 in the reference scenarios, but shares of 50-60% if nuclear power is restricted or assumption on VRE are more optimistic. Nelson et al (2012) report somewhat lower numbers for the Western Interconnection of the United States.…”

Section: B) Energy System Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some models, such as PRIMES (European Commission 2011, Eurelectric 2013, MARKAL/TIMES (Loulou et al 2004, 2005, Blesl et al 2012, or the World Energy Model (IEA 2013) cover all three energy subsectors heat, electricity, and transportation. Others focus on the electricity sector, such as ReEDs (Short et al 2003(Short et al , 2011, US-Regen (Blanford et al 2012), SWITCH (Nelson et al 2012) and CAPEW (Brun 2011) for North America, and LIMES (Haller et al 2012), PERSEUS (Rosen et al 2007), and DEMELIE (Lise & Kruseman 2008) for Europe. Finally, some models cover the power and natural gas sectors and include a gas supply curve and gas infrastructure constraints, such as LIBEMOD (Aune et al 2001).…”

Section: B) Energy System Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

Hirth¹

2015

The Energy Journal

120

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-This paper estimates the welfare-optimal market share of wind and solar power, explicitly taking into account their output variability. We present a theoretical valuation framework that consistently accounts for the impact of fluctuations over time, forecast errors, and the location of generators in the power grid on the marginal value of electricity from renewables. Then the optimal share of wind and solar power in Northwestern Europe's generation mix is estimated from a calibrated numerical model. We find the optimal long-term wind share to be 20%, three times more than today; however, we also find significant parameter uncertainty. Variability significantly impacts results: if winds were constant, the optimal share would be 60%. In addition, the effect of technological change, price shocks, and policies on the optimal share is assessed. We present and explain several surprising findings, including a negative impact of CO2 prices on optimal wind deployment. JEL -C61, C63, Q42, Q48, D41Keywords -wind power, solar power, variable renewables, cost-benefit analysis, numerical optimization, competitiveness

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Section: B) Energy System Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B) Energy System Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

Hirth¹

2015

The Energy Journal

120

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“…The future expansion of the electricity grid poses both spatial and temporal challenges to energy planners (Hart and Jacobson 2011;Williams et al 2012;Nelson et al 2012;Wei et al 2013). The models examined here differ widely in their geographic scope and resolution.…”

Section: Power Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California

et al. 2015

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Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets. Many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020-2050 timeframe. We conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand common insights across models, ranges of intermediate GHG targets (i.e., for 2030), necessary technology deployment rates, and future modeling needs for the state. The models (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model) ; the transportation sector is decarbonized using a mix of energy efficiency gains and alternative-fueled vehicles; and bioenergy is directed almost exclusively towards the transportation sector, accounting for a maximum of 40 % of transportation energy by 2050. Models suggest that without new policies, emissions from nonenergy sectors and from high-global-warming-potential gases may alone exceed California's 2050 GHG goal. Finally, future modeling efforts should focus on the: economic impacts and logistical feasibility of given scenarios, interactive effects between two or more climate policies, role of uncertainty in the state's long-term energy planning, and identification of pathways that achieve the dual goals of criteria pollutant and GHG emission reduction.

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“…However, utilities and grid operators often argue that today's power systems cannot accommodate significant variable wind and solar supplies without failure (1). Several studies have addressed some of the grid reliability issues with high WWS penetrations (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21), but no study has analyzed a system that provides the maximum possible long-term environmental and social benefits, namely supplying all energy end uses with only WWS power (no natural gas, biofuels, or nuclear power), with no load loss at reasonable cost. This paper fills this gap.…”

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confidence: 99%

Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

Jacobson

Delucchi

Cameron

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

351

175

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This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050-2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.energy security | climate change | grid stability | renewable energy | energy cost W orldwide, the development of wind, water, and solar (WWS) energy is expanding rapidly because it is sustainable, clean, safe, widely available, and, in many cases, already economical. However, utilities and grid operators often argue that today's power systems cannot accommodate significant variable wind and solar supplies without failure (1). Several studies have addressed some of the grid reliability issues with high WWS penetrations (2-21), but no study has analyzed a system that provides the maximum possible long-term environmental and social benefits, namely supplying all energy end uses with only WWS power (no natural gas, biofuels, or nuclear power), with no load loss at reasonable cost. This paper fills this gap. It describes the ability of WWS installations, determined consistently over each of the 48 contiguous United States (CONUS) and with wind and solar power output predicted in time and space with a 3D climate/weather model, accounting for extreme variability, to provide time-dependent load reliably and at low cost when combined with storage and demand response (DR) for the period 2050-2055, when a 100% WWS world may exist. Materials and MethodsThe key to this study is the development of a grid integration model (LOADMATCH). Inputs include time-dependent loads (every 30 s for 6 y); timedependent intermittent wind and solar resources (every 30 s for 6 y) predicted with a 3D global climate/weather model; time-dependent hydropower, geothermal, tidal, and wave resources; capacities and maximum charge/ discharge rates of several types of storage technologies, including hydrogen (H 2 ); specifications of losses from storage, transmission, distribution, and maintenance; and specifications of a DR system. Loads and Storage. CONUS loads for 2050-2055 for use in LOADMATCH are derived as follows. Annual CONUS loads are first e...

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High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures

Cited by 153 publications

References 6 publications

The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California

Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

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