Hierarchical Approach for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis

Fiorentino, Mauro; Gabriele, Salvatore; Rossi, Federico; Versace, Pasquale

doi:10.1007/978-94-009-3959-2_4

Cited by 40 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…To solve for an appropriate h value, a hierarchical approach (Fiorentino, 1979) was taken wherein the shape parameter h was computed as the average value from the group of sub-region solutions. An average value of 0.004 was computed with a standard error of estimation of about + 0.064 for the eastern Washington study area.…”

Section: L-moment Ratio Plot For All Western (Top) and Eastern (Belmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If quantile estimates are desired for events more extreme than the 500-year recurrence interval, it would be worthwhile to utilise the four-parameter Kappa distribution and to refine the selection of the h parameter. To solve for an appropriate h value, a hierarchical approach (Fiorentino, 1979) was taken wherein the shape parameter h was computed as the median value The at-site mean is computed from the gauge mean as:…”

Section: Identification Of Regional Probability Distribution 2-hour mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping for 24-hour and 2-hour durations for Washington State

Wallis

Schaefer²,

Barker³

et al. 2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

117

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This preamble explains why a paper on precipitation probabilities at the 2-hour and 24-hour time periods for the State of Washington, USA, was solicited for a special symposium honouring Dr. McCullochs contributions to hydrology. Indeed, the specific subject of the paper has no particular connection with Dr. McCullochs technical specialties or the thrust of IH work, but it does have much to do with Dr Mc Cullochs prowess and vision for running a research institute.In 1984, I was invited to spend a Sabbatical year at IH to work on the then new technique of Regional Probability Weighted Moments (PWM) in connection with Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The IH Flood Studies Report (FSR) had used the GEV distribution with a graphical method involving rather arbitrary and subjective steps in its fitting procedure for determining the regional distributions to use in different parts of the UK. Because physically impossibly-large flood probabilities had been produced by the FSR in connection with some Scottish dams, there was a controversy with large economic and social implications. I, working together with Jon Hosking, a young, very bright mathematical statistician employed by IH, addressed the problem and devised a PWM solution for the GEV so that the FSR flood probability estimation difficulty was resolved which was invaluable to IH at the time.After much more research in the UK and the USA, a book Regional Frequency Analysis; An Approach Based on L-Moments by J.R.M. Hosking and J.R. Wallis was published by Cambridge University Press. It is worth noting that the Regional L-moment algorithm is numerically equivalent to the Regional PWM algorithm, but the Regional L-moment approach is much more complete and powerful; and has appeared in a myriad of other investigations published in hydrological and meteorological journals worldwide, as well as in other studies reported at this General Assembly. Presumably Regional L-moments would have been discovered eventually, but their prompt appearance can be largely attributed to Dr. McCullochs stewardship of IH, and in particular on his insistence on the value of inviting outside scientists to IH. AbstractThis study is an update of the information contained in the precipitation-frequency atlas published by the US National Weather Service in 1973. Data collection for the NWS study ended in 1966 while this study uses the current data base which more than doubles the record length used in the NWS study. Washington State has highly variable topography and climate; in particular Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) varies from over 260 inches a year to less than 7 inches. Steep high mountain ranges provide very wet slopes as well as pronounced rain shadows with large climate changes occurring in relatively short distances. In addition there are four distinct sources for the atmospheric moisture needed for precipitation which gives rise to complex seasonal and spatial interactions. The PRISM mapping system used in this study has greatly improved the spatial mapping of precipita...

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Section: L-moment Ratio Plot For All Western (Top) and Eastern (Belmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Identification Of Regional Probability Distribution 2-hour mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping for 24-hour and 2-hour durations for Washington State

Wallis

Schaefer²,

Barker³

et al. 2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

117

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were estimated by regional analysis of the annual maxima of rainfall intensity performed with a probabilistic model based on the use of a Two Component Extreme Value Distribution [25], Maximum Likelihood estimator, and hierarchical estimation of regional model parameters [26]. In particular, we used a regional analysis of the annual maximums of precipitation in the Apulia region [27].…”

Section: Hydrologic Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Risk Evaluation in Urban Flooding and Instability-Prone Areas: The Case Study of San Giovanni Rotondo (Southern Italy)

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Estimating economic losses caused on buildings and other civil engineering works due to flooding events is often a difficult task. The accuracy of the estimate is affected by the availability of detailed data regarding the return period of the flooding event, vulnerability of exposed assets, and type of economy run in the affected area. This paper aims to provide a quantitative methodology for the assessment of economic losses associated with flood scenarios. The proposed methodology was performed for an urban area in Southern Italy prone to hydrogeological instabilities. At first, the main physical characteristics of the area such as rainfall, land use, permeability, roughness, and slopes of the area under investigation were estimated in order to obtain input for flooding simulations. Afterwards, the analysis focused on the spatial variability incidence of the rainfall parameters in flood events. The hydraulic modeling provided different flood hazard scenarios. The risk curve obtained by plotting economic consequences vs. the return period for each hazard scenario can be a useful tool for local authorities to identify adequate risk mitigation measures and therefore prioritize the economic resources necessary for the implementation of such mitigation measures.

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“…If this is not a relevant problem when even a few annual maximum flood observed values are available, it remains the weakest factor in regionalization procedures. Moreover, as shown by Fiorentino et al (1987b), the lower the order of the distribution moment the higher is its spatial variability. Then, the more is the physical conCorrespondence to: A. Gioia (a.gioia@poliba.it) trol on the moment variability and the less is the information content of regional hydrometric data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Theoretical derivation of the index flood

Gioia¹,

Fiorentino

Iacobellis³

et al. 2005

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. The expected value of the annual flood is always needed for attaining reliable estimates of the return period of floods. In particular, the accuracy of its estimate is crucial for ungauged basins, where regional analysis is to be invoked.The main goal of this research was to search for an index flood formula suitable to explicate the influence of basin characteristics such as geomorphology, vegetation, soil and climate. This formula, due to unavoidable overparameterization, more than being suggested for technical use, allows sensitivity analyses of simpler formulae to basin features.This study was mainly based on the theoretical distribution of floods developed by Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000). In particular, the relationship that they derived for the first order moment was analyzed and simplified by assuming the Gumbel distribution as a first order approximation for the distributions of floods and rainfall intensities. The results were validated with regard to data recorded in some basins located in Southern Italy, in a climatically end geologically heterogeneous territory.

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Hierarchical Approach for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis

Cited by 40 publications

References 8 publications

Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping for 24-hour and 2-hour durations for Washington State

Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping for 24-hour and 2-hour durations for Washington State

Economic Risk Evaluation in Urban Flooding and Instability-Prone Areas: The Case Study of San Giovanni Rotondo (Southern Italy)

Theoretical derivation of the index flood

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