Heterogenous Late Holocene Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean—The Kocain Cave Record From SW Turkey

Abstract

To predict the nature and impacts of future climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM), a "hotspot" which will experience severe impacts (Giorgi, 2006), past climatic variability must be constrained (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2013). Paucity of meteorological data (<100 years) renders palaeoclimate records vital for understanding spatio-temporal variance. Likewise, an abundance of archeological data facilitates analysis of human-climate-environment interactions and resilience of past societies to climatic fluctuations (Luterbacher et al., 2012).

Settlement, environment, and climate change in SW Anatolia: Dynamics of regional variation and the end of Antiquity

“…( c ) Full paleoclimate data (metadata of records in S2 Table ) with warm/cold intervals highlighted: Crisis Years Cold Event (CYCE), Roman Climatic Optimum (RCO), Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP), Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Kocain Mg/Ca (15-year averages), Gölhisar δ 18 O, and Salda Ca/Fe, are largely indicative of effective moisture; Kocain δ 18 O reflects precipitation, with secondary influences from seasonality and temperature [ 21 – 23 ].…”

“…Most apparent is the over-simplified and large-scale nature of such hypotheses. Thus, care must be taken when discussing generalized patterns for broad regions or periods, as both climatic and socio-economic conditions have the potential for high variability on both spatial and temporal scales, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean [ 4 , 8 , 9 , 12 , 21 ]. Regional analyses are therefore required where the main climatic constraints on agricultural productivity are identified.…”

“…However, averages can be misleading and conceal the high variability of climatic conditions within each period ( Fig 5c ). Additionally, agricultural productivity is more reliant on effective moisture, which for the higher-resolution Kocain Mg/Ca record [ 21 ] shows a weaker relationship (note the Roman Period in Fig 5a ). In the sections below, we consider the full picture of climatic variability during the periods under discussion and assess the extent of their impact on regional settlement location and character, in addition to the contribution of other factors.…”

“…In SW Turkey, effective moisture (soil moisture available to plants) is the primary climatic constraint to plant growth and, therefore, agricultural productivity [ 19 , 20 ]. The recent publication of a highly-resolved speleothem (stalagmite) proxy record from Kocain Cave, ~38km north of Antalya, enables detailed reconstruction of regional effective moisture and precipitation amount for >3,000 years [ 21 ]. Measured ratios of magnesium with calcium (Mg/Ca) record changes in effective moisture at a very high resolution (>1 sample per year).…”

Catastrophism and Uniformitarianism in Decision Making of Meghalayan Age in East India

“…The Meghalayan started 4.2KYBP, shaped by continuous 200years mega-drought/ very high flood phenomenon that shattered well-developed civilization in Asia such as Mesopotamia(for prolonged salinization in Syria), Yangtze Valley, Nubia (reduced river flow), Indus valley (Mahenzodaro and Harrapan), Ganges flood plains (Mahajanapadas), Egypt, Greece (Anatolia), Israel, Palestine, and Turkey, cultures across the globe where tropical monsoon went weak. The changes were due to shift of monsoon pattern, ITCZ, Huge Azores High and the western disturbance after a good SW monsoon period in mid-Holocene (Northgrippian) period, [9][10][11]. Later during mid Meghalayan period, many Vedic civilizations on Ganga River Valley (Guje Kingdom, Sahiya), due to shift of ISM and ICTZ.…”