Settlement, environment, and climate change in SW Anatolia: Dynamics of regional variation and the end of Antiquity

Abstract

This paper develops a regional dataset of change at 381 settlements for Lycia-Pamphylia in southwest Anatolia (Turkey) from volume 8 of the Tabula Imperii Byzantini–a compilation of historical toponyms and archaeological evidence. This region is rich in archaeological remains and high-quality paleo-climatic and -environmental archives. Our archaeological synthesis enables direct comparison of these datasets to discuss current hypotheses of climate impacts on historical societies. A Roman Climatic Optimum, characterized by warmer and wetter conditions, facilitating Roman expansion in the 1st-2nd centuries CE cannot be supported here, as Early Byzantine settlement did not benefit from enhanced precipitation in the 4th-6th centuries CE as often supposed. However, widespread settlement decline in a period with challenging archaeological chronologies (c. 550–650 CE) was likely caused by a “perfect storm” of environmental, climatic, seismic, pathogenic and socio-economic factors, though a shift to drier conditions from c. 460 CE appears to have preceded other factors by at least a century.

Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies

“…S1 ) underwent an inexorable process of fragmentation that was not followed by the emergence of new urban settlements, populations in the northern lowlands persisted 27 , 29 . The patterns of societal stress and resilience against precipitation changes are consistent with archaeological studies of climate and cultural change in different parts of the globe, including South America 30 , Late Antique Turkey 31 , Arabia 32 , Malta 33 and Postclassic Period Mayapan (Yucatan, Mexico) 12 .…”

The role of climate changes in the intensification of agricultural activities in Anatolia during the late Roman-early Byzantine period

“…Records revealed that the Southwest Anatolia region shows more similarity with West Anatolia (Labuhn et al, 2018). These data showed that the climatic conditions were very high in precipitation and humidity between 330 CE and 400-460 CE; a rapid transition to drier conditions occurred from 460 CE, which continued until ~830 CE (Jacobson et al, 2022). Therefore, it seems likely that Southwest Anatolia had a slightly different climatic history.…”

Archaeological Evidence for Community Resilience and Sustainability: A Bibliometric and Quantitative Review

“…Two of these are key archaeological theory/summary papers [21,22]. This interdisciplinary group focuses on the impact of ancient climate change, which these papers discuss for the Neolithic period in SW Asia [72,74] and the Late Antique Eastern Mediterranean [73,91]. Many other key papers relating to historical climate change impacts have been published by this group, with a focus on collaboration between paleo-scientists and archaeologists/historians, especially relating to the Byzantine Empire [110].…”