Objective,
High use of the ED is a worldwide problem. We hypothesised that high use of the ED could be understood as a feature of a complex system comprising patients, healthcare and society. Complex systems have characteristic statistical properties, with stable patterns at the level of the system emerging from unstable patterns at the level of individuals who make up the system.
Methods
Analysis of a linked dataset of routinely collected health records from all 13 hospital trusts providing ED care in the Yorkshire and Humber region of the UK (population 5.5 million). We analysed the distribution of attendances per person in each of three years and measured the transition of individual patients between high, low and non-attendance. We fitted data to power law distributions typically seen in complex systems using maximum likelihood estimation.
Results
The data included 3.6 million attendances at EDs in 13 hospital trusts. 29/39 (74.3%) analyses showed a statistical fit to a power law; 2 (5.1%) fitted an alternative distribution. All trusts' data fitted a power law in at least one year. Differences over time and between hospital trusts were small and partly explained by demographics. In contrast, individual patients' high use was unstable between years.
Conclusions
ED attendance patterns are stable at the level of the system, but unstable at the level of individual high users. Attendances follow a power law distribution typical of complex systems. Interventions to address ED high use need to consider the whole system and not just the individual high users.