Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future

Trancoso, Ralph; Syktus, Jozef; Toombs, Nathan; Ahrens, D. G.; Wong, Kenneth Koon-Ho; Pozza, Ramona Dalla

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140521

Cited by 82 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…first time over Australia, we have computed the trends of other important heatwave metrics (like heatwave season duration (HWS), heatwave cumulative magnitude (HWC), and heatwave timing (HWT)), which indicate conditions that can have severe impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Our results not only highlight that heatwaves are becoming more frequent, longer, and intense as was found in previous studies (Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al, 2016;Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Lewis, 2020;Perkins & Alexander, 2013;Perkins, 2015;Steffen et al, 2014;Trancoso et al, 2020) but -through the inclusion of additional heatwave metrics -also signify that the heatwave season is extending with the much earlier onset of heatwaves over many parts of Australia in recent decades. Our results also indicate that excess heat during heatwaves (HWC) and extreme heatwave intensity (HWA) are increasing at a rapid rate over the southern and southeastern regions of Australia compared to the other parts of Australia (Fig.…”

Section: Accepted Articlesupporting

confidence: 86%

“…In this study, we found that Australia-wide heatwave trends are substantially higher than those presented by Perkins and Alexander (2013), who computed the trends for the period 1951-2008, and Trancoso et al (2020 who computed the trends for the period 1950-2016. Here for the first time over Australia, we have computed the trends of other important heatwave metrics (like HWS, HWC, and HWT), which indicate conditions that can have severe impacts on human morbidity and mortality.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 59%

“…The present study builds on previous studies (e.g., Perkins & Alexander, 2013;Trancoso et al, 2020) by updating the trends of all heatwave characteristics (up to 2020) at a continental-scale (Australia wide). In addition, historical heatwave and severe heatwave trends at in-situ locations for major Australian cities are presented, which has not been previously researched.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 87%

“…In recent decades both the average and the extreme intensity of heatwaves is increasing rapidly over Australia (Cowan et al, 2014;Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al, 2016;Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Lewis, 2020;Trancoso et al, 2020). These intense heatwaves have adverse effects on human health (Nairn et al, 2018).…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although many previous studies examined the changes in Australian heatwaves, they limit their analysis to certain characteristics, including heatwave frequency, intensity, and duration (Cowan et al, 2014;Perkins & Alexander, 2013;Trancoso et al, 2020). Analysis of all these metrics (heatwave frequency, duration, intensity, cumulative magnitude, timing, number, and total season duration) using the same heatwave definition provides a consistent, comprehensive understanding of Australian heatwaves, but until now such an analysis is lacking.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Intensifying Australian Heatwave Trends and Their Sensitivity to Observational Data

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Section: Accepted Articlesupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 59%

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensifying Australian Heatwave Trends and Their Sensitivity to Observational Data

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Recent Observed Changes in Extreme High‐Temperature Events and Associated Meteorological Conditions over Africa

Iyakaremye

Zeng

Ullah

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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More frequent and intensified high-temperature extremes are acceptable indicators of global warming, which pose serious socio-economic impacts. In the present research, the Climate Prediction Center daily minimum and maximum temperature are used to characterize high temperatures into intensity of hot days (TXx), hot nights (TNx), and frequency indices based on the 90th percentile of hot days (TX90p) and hot nights (TN90p) as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from 1981 to 2020 over Africa. The regression approach based on iterative reweighted least squares and correlation analyses are used to estimate the trends in extreme high-temperature events and their relationship with various meteorological variables. Furthermore, the Pruned exact linear time algorithm is used to assess if the maximum temperature experienced an abrupt change. Results show that many parts of Africa experienced more frequent and intensified hot days and nights in the current period (1998-2020) compared to the recent past (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997), suggesting a clear shift in climate. Thus, we used the climatological mean differences between meteorological parameters before and after the breakpoint to assess the relationship between atmospheric conditions and extreme high-temperature events. As a result, we found that the current period observed an increase in the geopotential height at 500 hPa and reduced total cloud cover, as well as an increase in upward longwave radiation resulting in an upsurge in the frequency of hot days over many African sub-regions. The present study's findings provide useful information for future planning and development of early warning systems to cope with risks associated with hot extremes.

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Accelerated exacerbation of global extreme heatwaves under warming scenarios

Han

Sun

Liu

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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It is generally believed that global warming drives an increase in heatwaves, but these changes vary regionally. Projected trends of heatwaves and comparisons between observed and projected heatwave trends are poorly understood. We selected multiple characteristics of global heatwave events, including indicators on heat-related health impacts under historical and future scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange/Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. We quantified the trends in the frequency, intensity, duration and peak temperature of heatwave events and identified heatwave hotspots that respond dramatically to radiative forcing. Future simulations suggest a four-fold increase in the duration of heatwaves by 2050s, spatially concentrated in central Africa, northern South America and Southeast Asia, and the maximum duration of single heatwave event will be up to 44 days under a high emission scenario. Accelerated increasing trends are also detected in intensity, total duration and temperature of heatwaves with up to 2-fold, 8-fold and 9-fold larger than the trends of the baseline period under the high emission scenario. Considering socioeconomic exposure to extreme heatwaves, we identified some hotspot areas in western Europe, eastern North America and northern China that will face greater potential risks in the coming future and therefore need to urgently strengthen their adaptation capacity.

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Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future

Cited by 82 publications

References 71 publications

Intensifying Australian Heatwave Trends and Their Sensitivity to Observational Data

Intensifying Australian Heatwave Trends and Their Sensitivity to Observational Data

Recent Observed Changes in Extreme High‐Temperature Events and Associated Meteorological Conditions over Africa

Accelerated exacerbation of global extreme heatwaves under warming scenarios

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