Accelerated exacerbation of global extreme heatwaves under warming scenarios

Han, Qinmei; Sun, Shao; Liu, Zhao; Xü, Wei; Shi, Peijun

doi:10.1002/joc.7541

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…Seminal work from Lind ( 1963 ) indicated that after body core temperature inflection, humans could remain in the heat for up to 8 h before falling out of the “prescriptive zone” while performing work. Future work should examine rates of heat storage after inflection is achieved to further our understanding of how long humans could safely stay in the heat if forced to, especially in a world of increased, sustained heat (Han et al 2022 ) and the risk of infrastructure failure, which inhibits cooling mechanisms such as fans and air conditioning (Perera et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utility of the Heat Index in defining the upper limits of thermal balance during light physical activity (PSU HEAT Project)

et al. 2022

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Extreme heat events and consequent detrimental heat-health outcomes have been increasing in recent decades and are expected to continue with future climate warming. While many indices have been created to quantify the combined atmospheric contributions to heat, few have been validated to determine how index-defined heat conditions impact human health. However, this subset of indices is likely not valid for all situations and populations nor easily understood and interpreted by health officials and the public. In this study, we compare the ability of thresholds determined from the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Heat Index (HI), the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to predict the compensability of human heat stress (upper limits of heat balance) measured as part of the Pennsylvania State University’s Heat Environmental Age Thresholds (PSU HEAT) project. While the WBGT performed the best of the three indices for both minimal activities of daily living (MinAct; 83 W·m−2) and light ambulation (LightAmb; 133 W·m−2) in a cohort of young, healthy subjects, HI was likewise accurate in predicting heat stress compensability in MinAct conditions. HI was significantly correlated with subjects’ perception of temperature and humidity as well as their body core temperature, linking perception of the ambient environment with physiological responses in MinAct conditions. Given the familiarity the public has with HI, it may be better utilized in the expansion of safeguard policies and the issuance of heat warnings during extreme heat events, especially when access to engineered cooling strategies is unavailable.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utility of the Heat Index in defining the upper limits of thermal balance during light physical activity (PSU HEAT Project)

et al. 2022

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“…It is virtually certain that heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s (Allan et al., 2021; Han et al., 2022). For instance, Perkins‐Kirkpatrick and Lewis (2020) found that the world has experienced an average increase of 2.26 more heatwave days per decade since 1950, with substantial inter‐regional variations in the overall extreme heat being experienced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, extreme climatic events, characterized as abrupt meteorological phenomena exhibiting intensity and/or impacts that deviate significantly from historical variability, are becoming frequent and intense (Allan et al., 2021). There is growing evidence that simultaneous or successive heatwaves and droughts, wild fires and floods have increased in recent decades (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012; Han et al., 2022; Ma et al., 2020; Raymond et al., 2020; Zscheischler et al., 2020), which have the potential to exacerbate the loss of species and ecosystem degradation driven by anthropogenic pressures (Allan et al., 2021; Fey et al., 2015; Rahmstorf & Coumou, 2011; Ummenhofer & Meehl, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves

Ding,

Newbold,

Ameca

2024

Global Change Biology

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As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait‐based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non‐threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave‐vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non‐vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non‐vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave‐vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

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“…Lesueur’s Velvet Gecko ( Amalosia lesueurii ) inhabits sandstone and granite rock outcrops in eastern Australia and occurs from southeastern New South Wales to southeastern Queensland [ 29 ]. In southern populations, adults mature at age 2 to 3 years, and live for up to 13 years in the wild [ 32 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Velvet geckos are vulnerable to high temperatures because females lay eggs in communal nests in rock crevices, and nest temperatures are positively correlated with air temperatures [ 28 ]. Thus, if the intensity and duration of summer heatwaves increases in the future, as predicted by climate modelers [ 22 , 29 ], then nest temperatures may shift upwards. Although velvet geckos are not reported to have TSD, they are nonetheless at risk from warming because incubation-induced changes in hatchling survival rates can increase the risk of local extinctions [ 28 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of Oviposition Site Choice for Geckos in Changing Environments

Abayarathna

Webb

2022

Biology

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Most lizards lay eggs inside nests where embryos experience daily fluctuations in temperature. As embryos are sensitive to exposure to high temperatures, increases in nest temperatures may pose a risk to lizards. In the velvet gecko Amalosia lesueurii, nest temperatures are positively correlated with air temperatures, so nests may get hotter in future. However, maternal variation in oviposition site choice might buffer populations from future warming. To evaluate the consequences of oviposition site choice, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes that mimicked temperatures experienced inside sun-exposed (“warm”: mean = 25.4 °C; range = 16.5–35.5 °C) and shaded (“cold”: mean = 23.3 °C; 17.5–30.5 °C) communal nests. We measured the phenotypic traits of hatchlings, released them to the wild, and monitored their survival over 6 months. Warm-incubated hatchlings hatched 15 days earlier, on average, and were smaller than their cold-incubated clutch mates. Incubation treatment did not influence the apparent survival of hatchlings. Hence, even if air temperatures increase by 2 °C in future, thermal regimes inside some currently used shaded nests will be suitable for embryo development. Maternal variation in nest site choice may therefore allow southern populations of the velvet gecko to persist in changing environments.

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Accelerated exacerbation of global extreme heatwaves under warming scenarios

Cited by 9 publications

References 38 publications

Utility of the Heat Index in defining the upper limits of thermal balance during light physical activity (PSU HEAT Project)

Utility of the Heat Index in defining the upper limits of thermal balance during light physical activity (PSU HEAT Project)

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves

Consequences of Oviposition Site Choice for Geckos in Changing Environments

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