Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

Kasai, Masataka; Okaze, Tsubasa; Mochida, Akashi; Hanaoka, Kazumasa

doi:10.3390/su9081467

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Radiation is a critical component of heat stress (Brunt 1943, Minard et al 1957 and was only recently included in regional modeling studies (Kasai et al 2017). Many global studies using wet bulb globe temperature, however, omit the radiative component from heat stress, ignoring an important source of heat load on humans and animals (e.g., Smith et al 2016).…”

Section: Future Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

Buzan

Huber

2020

Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.

132

126

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As the world overheats—potentially to conditions warmer than during the three million years over which modern humans evolved—suffering from heat stress will become widespread. Fundamental questions about humans’ thermal tolerance limits are pressing. Understanding heat stress as a process requires linking a network of disciplines, from human health and evolutionary theory to planetary atmospheres and economic modeling. The practical implications of heat stress are equally transdisciplinary, requiring technological, engineering, social, and political decisions to be made in the coming century. Yet relative to the importance of the issue, many of heat stress's crucial aspects, including the relationship between its underlying atmospheric drivers—temperature, moisture, and radiation—remain poorly understood. This review focuses on moist heat stress, describing a theoretical and modeling framework that enables robust prediction of the averaged properties of moist heat stress extremes and their spatial distribution in the future, and draws some implications for human and natural systems from this framework. ▪ Moist heat stress affects society; we summarize drivers of moist heat stress and assess future impacts on societal and global scales. ▪ Moist heat stress pattern scaling of climate models allows research on future heat waves, infrastructure planning, and economic productivity.

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Section: Future Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

Buzan

Huber

2020

Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.

132

126

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“…Increasing urban temperature due to urbanization has been observed and studied in cities around the world such as Atlanta [1], Dhaka [2], Ho Chi Minh City [3], Karachi [4], Jakarta [5], Colombo [6], and Tokyo [7]. UHIs may adversely affect physical and mental health [8][9][10], as well as promote cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease [11]. They also have significant effects on energy consumption for cooling of urban buildings [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sensitivity of Urban Heat Island to Urban Green Space—A Model-Based Study of City of Colombo, Sri Lanka

et al. 2019

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Urbanization continues to trigger massive land-use land-cover change that transforms natural green environments to impermeable paved surfaces. Fast-growing cities in Asia experience increased urban temperature indicating the development of urban heat islands (UHIs) because of decreased urban green space, particularly in recent decades. This paper investigates the existence of UHIs and the impact of green areas to mitigate the impacts of UHIs in Colombo, Sri Lanka, using UrbClim, a boundary climate model that runs two classes of simulations, namely urbanization impact simulations, and greening simulations. The urbanization impact simulation results show that UHIs spread spatially with the reduction of vegetation cover, and increases the average UHI intensity. The greening simulations show that increasing green space up to 30% in urban areas can decrease the average air temperature by 0.1 °C. On the other hand, converting entire green areas into urban areas in suburban areas increases the average temperature from 27.75 °C to 27.78 °C in Colombo. This demonstrates the sensitivity of UHI to vegetation cover in both urban and suburban areas. These seemingly small changes are average grid values and may indicate much higher impacts at sub-grid levels.

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“…Because a high WBGT did not necessarily lead to large numbers of ambulance transportations of heatstroke patients, it is possible that dynamic changes in the WBGT may predict the risk of heatstroke better than the daily maximum WBGT. It has been speculated that the incidence of heatstroke is increased by an inability to take adaptation behaviors in each specific individual , such as participating in sports event or festivals among young individuals ( Kasai et al, 2017 ) and continuously laying down in a warm room among elderly ( Abrahamson et al, 2009 ). Also, the risk of heatstroke may be high when the WBGT suddenly increases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan

Fujimoto

Nishiura

2022

PeerJ

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Background Predictive scenarios of heatstroke over the long-term future have yet to be formulated. The purpose of the present study was to generate baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations using climate change scenario datasets in Tokyo, Japan. Methods Data on the number of heat-related ambulance transportations in Tokyo from 2015 to 2019 were examined, and the relationship between the risk of heat-related ambulance transportations and the daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was modeled using three simple dose–response models. To quantify the risk of heatstroke, future climatological variables were then retrieved to compute the WBGT up to the year 2100 from climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using two scenario models. The predicted risk of heat-related ambulance transportations was embedded onto the future age-specific projected population. Results The proportion of the number of days with a WBGT above 28°C is predicted to increase every five years by 0.16% for RCP2.6, 0.31% for RCP4.5, and 0.68% for RCP8.5. In 2100, compared with 2000, the number of heat-related ambulance transportations is predicted to be more than three times greater among people aged 0–64 years and six times greater among people aged 65 years or older. The variance of the heatstroke risk becomes greater as the WBGT increases. Conclusions The increased risk of heatstroke for the long-term future was demonstrated using a simple statistical approach. Even with the RCP2.6 scenario, with the mildest impact of global warming, the risk of heatstroke is expected to increase. The future course of heatstroke predicted by our approach acts as a baseline for future studies.

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Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

Cited by 9 publications

References 32 publications

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

The Sensitivity of Urban Heat Island to Urban Green Space—A Model-Based Study of City of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan

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