Heat waves in Madrid 1986–1997: effects on the health of the elderly

Díaz, Julio César; Jordan, Angela; García, Rafael Borge; López, Carmen Rodríguez; Alberdi, J.; Hernández, E.; Otero, Ángel

doi:10.1007/s00420-001-0290-4

Cited by 229 publications

(159 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Thus, it seems that the HI index about 40 • C represents dangerous and not only discomfort days for seniors. This statement was confirmed indirectly by Diaz, who, basing on research study in Madrid, stated that the daily maximum temperature at which the slope of the relationship between mortality and temperature becomes steeper is 36.5 • C (Díaz et al, 2002). In search for a health-related index, we tried to propose something simple that works.…”

Section: Human Health and Well-beingmentioning

confidence: 89%

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Szwed

Karg

Pińskwar

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961-1990 and 2061-2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes -droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being: −2.175 t/ha for potatoes and -0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground) decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation) needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future) can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days Correspondence to: M. Szwed (mszwed@man.poznan.pl) and the number of seniors (aged 65+). The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during 100 years. This is an effect of both increase in the number of seniors (over twofold) and the number of senior-discomfort days (nearly fourfold).

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Section: Human Health and Well-beingmentioning

confidence: 89%

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Szwed

Karg

Pińskwar

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Dessai 2002, with impacts in Iberia associated with extreme values of maximum temperature (Dessai 2002, Díaz et al 2002a,b, García-Herrera et al 2005, Trigo et al 2009). …”

Section: Future Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal: recent changes and future scenarios

Ramos¹,

Trigo²,

Santo³

2011

Clim. Res.

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Changes in surface air temperature extremes over mainland Portugal since the early 1940s were investigated on the basis of daily maximum and minimum temperatures available from time series from 23 weather stations. The maximum (minimum) temperature decreased by 0. At the seasonal level, we detected statistically significant increments of extreme heat events for spring and summer, and a decrease of cold extremes in winter. We then used the HadRM3 output to study changes in the maximum and minimum temperature distributions and associated changes in the likelihood of extreme events in the future (2071-2100) under 2 change scenarios. Changes obtained for the future are consistent with those found since the mid1970s in Portugal with an increase in maximum temperature of 3.2°C (4.7°C) for the B2 (A2) scenario in summer and ~3.4°C in both scenarios for spring. For minimum temperature, the results were similar, with increases for summer (spring) ranging from 2.7°C (2.5°C) in the B2 scenario to 4.1°C (2.9°C) in the A2 scenario.

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“…2000, Donaldson et al 2003. In Europe, these studies mostly focused on the UK (Rooney et al 1998, Hajat et al 2002, western European countries (Kunst et al 1993, Sartor et al 1995, Huynen et al 2001, Laschewski & Jendritzky 2002 and southern Europe from Portugal to Greece (Katsouyanni et al 1993, Matzarakis & Mayer 1997, Dessai 2002, Díaz et al 2002a,b, Zauli Sajani et al 2002, while the impacts on central and eastern European populations have not been examined. Annual heat-related mortality was found to be similar in European countries with warm and cold summers, although it is observed at higher temperatures in countries with warmer climate (Keatinge et al 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic examined through synoptic and 'traditional' approaches

Kyselý¹,

Huth²

2004

Clim. Res.

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ABSTRACT:We compare 2 different approaches applied in the evaluation of heat-related mortality: a 'traditional' one, based on the analysis of relationships between mortality and individual meteorological variables and/or indices (such as heat index), and a synoptic one, which links mortality to objectively determined air masses, taking into account the entire weather situation rather than single elements. Various methods of cluster analysis and of final forming of air masses were tested in the airmass classification procedure; all classifications comprise an 'offensive' air mass, which is associated with a pronounced rise in mortality of 20 to 30 deaths d -1 (7 to 10% relative increase). It is characterized by elevated temperatures, low cloud cover and a relatively strong flow with a southern component. Regression analysis reveals a slightly stronger correlation of mortality with heat index than temperature, enhanced response in females over males, and the strongest relationship for unlagged variables. Positive correlations hold for lags of 0 to 3 d only, while at lags of 4 to 25 d, the link is negative, which demonstrates the mortality displacement effect and its time extent. Significantly increased mortality is observed at daily maximum (average, minimum) temperatures reaching or exceeding 26°C (20°C, 14°C) and their anomalies from mean seasonal courses of 2°C or larger. The results demonstrate that the air-mass-based approach can be applied to central European conditions and is a suitable alternative to the more commonly used methods in assessing impacts of heat stress on mortality in this area.

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Heat waves in Madrid 1986–1997: effects on the health of the elderly

Abstract: Since a warmer climate is predicted in the future, the incidence of heat wave should increase, and more comprehensive measures, both medical and social, should be adopted to prevent the effects of extreme heat on the population, particularly the elderly.

Cited by 229 publications

References 24 publications

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal: recent changes and future scenarios

Heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic examined through synoptic and 'traditional' approaches

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