Heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic examined through synoptic and 'traditional' approaches

Kyselý, Jan; Huth, Radan

doi:10.3354/cr025265

Cited by 52 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…A similar standardisation procedure was also applied in e.g. Whitman et al (1997), Guest et al (1999), Smoyer et al (2000) and Kyselý & Huth (2004).…”

Section: Mortality Data and Their Standardisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Kyselý¹,

Plavcová²,

Davídkovová³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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We compared the effects of hot and cold spells on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic over 1986-2006 and examined differences between population groups. We used analogous definitions for hot and cold spells that are based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies and do not incorporate any location-specific threshold. Epidemics of influenza/ acute respiratory infections were identified, and corresponding periods were excluded from the analysis. Both hot and cold spells are associated with significant excess cardiovascular mortality. The effects of hot spells are more direct (unlagged) and typically concentrated in a few days of a hot spell, while cold spells are associated with indirect (lagged) mortality impacts persisting after a cold spell ends. Although the mortality peak is less pronounced for cold spells, the cumulative magnitude of excess mortality is larger for cold than hot spells. Gender differences consist mainly of much larger excess mortality of females in hot spells and more lagged effects in females than males associated with cold spells. Effects of hot spells have a similar temporal pattern in all age groups but much larger magnitude in the elderly. For cold spells, by contrast, relative excess mortality is largest in the middle-aged population (25-59 yr). The results suggest that mechanisms playing the dominant role in inducing cold-related mortality differ between this age group (in which the effects are unlagged) and older age groups (significant excess mortality at lags of around 7 d and longer). For both high and low temperature extremes, the formulation of preventive measures (implemented by means of warning systems and biometeorological forecast alerts) should take into account the varied effects in individual population groups.

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“…A similar standardisation procedure was also applied in e.g. Whitman et al (1997), Guest et al (1999), Smoyer et al (2000) and Kyselý & Huth (2004).…”

Section: Mortality Data and Their Standardisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Kyselý¹,

Plavcová²,

Davídkovová³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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“…(The average T MAX in July-August 1961-2006 ranges between 20.2 and 25.3°C at the 44 stations, and the standard deviation of daily T MAX in July-August is around 4.6°C; at all stations, T 1 exceeds the average by at least one standard deviation.) The lower threshold T 2 corresponds approximately to the threshold value of T MAX at which excess mortality appears in the population of the Czech Republic (Kyselý and Huth, 2004). The definition allows two periods of extremely hot days separated by a slight drop of temperature to make up one heat wave but, on the other hand, two periods of hot days separated by a pronounced temperature drop (below T 2 ) are treated as separate heat waves.…”

Section: Heat Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long‐term prospect?

Kyselý

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

137

111

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ABSTRACT:The study examines whether recent occurrences of severe heat waves in central Europe were exceptional in the context of past fluctuations, and estimates their recurrence probabilities under several climate change scenarios. Using data from a network of meteorological stations in the Czech Republic since 1961, it is found that 1994 was the year with the most severe heat waves over majority of the area. The other seasons with enhanced heat wave characteristics were 1992, 2003 and 2006. Analysis of the long-term temperature series at Prague-Klementinum reveals that the July 2006 heat wave, covering 33 consecutive days, was the longest and most severe individual heat wave since 1775. Probabilities of long and severe heat waves are estimated from daily temperature series generated by a first-order autoregressive model with a deterministic component (incorporating a seasonal cycle and a long-term trend). The model is validated with respect to the simulation of heat waves in present climate and subsequently run under several assumptions reflecting various rates of summer warming over 2007-2100. The return period of a heat wave reaching or exceeding the length of the 2006 heat wave in Prague is estimated to be around 120 years in 2006. Owing to an increase in mean summer temperatures, probabilities of very long heat waves have already risen by an order of magnitude over the recent 25 years, and are likely to increase by another order of magnitude by around 2040 under the summer warming rate assumed by the mid-scenario. Even the lower bound scenario yields a considerable decline of return periods associated with intense heat waves. Nevertheless, the most severe recent heat waves appear to be typical rather of a late 21st century than a mid-21st century climate.

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“…In terms of mortality impacts, heat has been recognized as the most deadly among all atmospheric hazards (Sheridan & Kalkstein 2004), and heat-related mortality has been reported in numerous locations and regions across North America (e.g. Whitman et al 1997, Smoyer et al 2000a,b, Curriero et al 2002, Europe (Keatinge et al 2000, Huynen et al 2001, Laschewski & Jendritzky 2002, Kyselý & Huth 2004, Asia (Nakai et al 1999, Tan et al 2004, Choi et al 2005 and Australia (Guest et al 1999, Vaneckova et al 2008). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

Kyselý¹,

Kim²

2009

Clim. Res.

Self Cite

101

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The paper examines heat-related mortality in the population of South Korea between 1991 and 2005 and examines the extent to which the 1994 heat wave was unusual in terms of mortality impacts and recurrence probability. Most summer heat waves are found to be associated with enhanced mortality. However, the July to August 1994 heat wave was clearly exceptional, with the total death toll exceeding 3000 in South Korea. This value represents net excess mortality, as no displacement effect appeared after the hot summer season. Significantly elevated mortality occurred in all age groups, and an estimated 45% of victims were persons under 70 yr of age. The relative increase in mortality was larger in children up to 14 yr than in any other age group, and the mortality response was stronger in males than females, although males were less vulnerable during 'average' heat waves. The very large death toll ranks the 1994 heat wave over East Asia as among the worst weather-related disasters in this region. A climatological analysis reveals that the July to August 1994 heat wave might be considered an extremely rare event if temperature time series are assumed to be stationary. However, under a more realistic assumption of gradual warming related to global climate change, the recurrence probability of an event analogous to the 1994 heat wave is sharply rising for near-future time horizons. This emphasizes the need for an efficient heat-watchwarning system in this area, in order to reduce the human mortality impacts of heat waves. KEY WORDS: Heat wave · Human mortality · East Asia · Extreme events · Climate changeResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic examined through synoptic and 'traditional' approaches

Cited by 52 publications

References 43 publications

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long‐term prospect?

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

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Heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic examined through synoptic and 'traditional' approaches

Cited by 52 publications

References 43 publications

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on ­cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on ­cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long‐term prospect?

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

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Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic

Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic