Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany

Abstract

Relationships of larger scale meteorological predictors with ground-level daily maximum ozone (O 3max ) and daily maximum air temperature (T max ) for stations in Bavaria were analysed. O 3max and T max as well as threshold exceedances of these variables were assessed under the constraints of ongoing climate change until the end of the twenty-first century. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions, a substantial increase of T max in the months from April to September arose, with a mean value of 5 K in the period 2081-2100 compared with the historical period 1986-2005. Statistical downscaling projections pointed to a mean O 3max rise of 17 μg/m 3 . The frequency of threshold exceedances showed also large changes. Hot days may occur in the future at about 30% of all days. Exceedances of O 3max > 100 μg/m 3 were projected to increase to about 40% of all days at urban traffic sites and up to about 70% in the rural regional background. Days with O 3max > 120 μg/m 3 occurred still at about 20% of all days at urban traffic sites and at about 45% in rural regional background locations. With respect to combined T max > 30°C and O 3max > 100 μg/m 3 events in the future, an occurrence of such events at about 27-29% of all days in the summer months from April to September was assessed. The increases were mainly associated with the strong temperature rise until the end of the century. In summary, the projected T max and O 3max changes point to a considerable increased health burden in Bavaria until the end of the century, resulting from strong changes of both variables and their associated individual and combined impact on human health.

Modeling and projecting health-relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate

“…The initial selection of predictor variables was determined by literature review (e.g., Carro-Calvo et al 2017;Hertig 2020;Krueger et al 2015;Otero et al 2016), data availability in the chosen ERA5 reanalysis (from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); Hersbach and Dee 2016), and earth system models (ESMs) as well as own analysis. The following large-scale meteorological variables formed the initial database: geopotential heights at the 850 hPa and 500 hPa levels (GH850, GH500), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), mean air temperatures at 850 hPa, 500 hPa, and 2 m (MT850, MT500, and MT2m), relative humidity at 850 hPa and 500 hPa (RH850, RH500), surface solar radiation downwards (SSRD), surface thermal radiation downwards (STRD), total cloud cover (TCC), and zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa and 500 hPa (UWind850, UWind500, and VWind850, VWind500).…”

“…Only a rare number of studies investigated concurrent elevated temperature and O 3 levels under recent and future climatic conditions. Hertig (2020) assessed the relationship between large-scale meteorological mechanisms and elevated levels of daily maximum ground-level temperature and ozone concentrations for Bavarian cities. Furthermore, combined threshold exceedances of both target variables were analyzed.…”

Justification of theoretical and methodological aspects of using the tools of system analysis to ensure the protection of atmospheric air

“…As a result, scientists have proven a close relationship between air pollution and mortality from lungs, cardiovascular and other diseases [3]. Moreover, recent scientific works prove the existence of a synergistic effect between the action of certain pollutants and manifestations of climate change, and enhance the negative impact of each other on the human body [4,5]. All this determines the extreme importance of research related to reducing the impact of anthropogenic activities on the state of the air environment.…”

Heat and Ozone Pollution Waves in Central and South Europe—Characteristics, Weather Types, and Association with Mortality

“…Episodes of high ozone concentrations have been registered throughout Europe in urban, suburban, and rural areas (e.g., [5,8,11,33,35]) and are expected to continue to grow due to climate change in many parts of the world, as it propitiates the atmospheric conditions favoring ozone formation and temperature increase [28,[35][36][37]. Nevertheless, the expected growth is not projected to be similar throughout Europe, [13] with a projected increase (decrease) in 8 h maximum ozone concentrations for north-western (central and southern) Europe.…”

“…This is largely in agreement with the work by [38], which projected an increase (decrease) for Northern (Southern) Europe, and with the work by [39], which projected a decrease for Portugal. Reference [28] projected for Bavaria (southern Germany) an increase of intensity and frequency of ozone threshold exceedances.…”