Heat and Ozone Pollution Waves in Central and South Europe—Characteristics, Weather Types, and Association with Mortality

Abstract

Air pollution and hot temperatures present two major health risks, especially for vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing conditions. Episodes of high ozone concentrations and heat waves have been registered throughout Europe and are expected to continue to grow due to climate change. Here, several different heat and ozone wave definitions were applied to characterize the wave-type extremes for two climatically different regions, i.e., Portugal (South Europe) and Bavaria (Central Europe), and their impacts were evaluated considering each type of hazard independently but also when they occur simultaneously. Heat and ozone waves were analyzed with respect to the underlying atmospheric circulation patterns and in terms of their association with human mortality. Heat waves were identified as the most frequent wave type and, despite different climate settings, a comparable exposure to heat and ozone waves was found in Central and South Europe. Waves were associated with in-situ built-up as well as with advection of air masses. However, in Bavaria waves showed the strongest connection with autochthonous weather conditions, while for Portugal, the strongest relationship appeared for eastern and north-eastern inflow. The most severe events, as measured by excess mortality, were always associated to compound heat-ozone waves.

Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region‐Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe

“…Their relationship and joint occurrences have already presented the focus of a variety of recent health‐related environmental studies (e.g., Abdullah et al., 2017 ; Hertig, 2020 ; Schnell & Prather, 2017 ). There is evidence that the co‐occurrence of both variables results in a human health risk beyond the sum of their individual effects (Hertig et al., 2020 ; Katsouyanni & Analitis, 2009 ; Pattenden et al., 2010 ).…”

“…The general presumption of a strong direct relationship of local ozone and air temperature conditions is further based on the assumption of a high proportion of O 3 in-situ formation by photochemical reactions. If long-range transport processes of ozone from various locations outside the specific o-t-region strongly determine pollution levels, as for example,Hertig et al (2020) found for Portugal, a weaker connection of station-based MDA8O3 levels on local air temperatures can be anticipated. Similar influences and further non-in-situ formation factors might be present in 6-SE with stations spread across Portugal and mainly southern parts of Spain and France.…”

“…Their relationship and joint occurrences have already presented the focus of a variety of recent health-related environmental studies (e.g., Abdullah et al, 2017;Hertig, 2020;Schnell & Prather, 2017). There is evidence that the co-occurrence of both variables results in a human health risk beyond the sum of their individual effects (Hertig et al, 2020;Katsouyanni & Analitis, 2009;Pattenden et al, 2010).The variations, linkage, and co-occurrences of O 3 and air temperatures are based on the specific nonlinear, temperature-dependent and sunlight-driven chemistry of ozone formation determined by the overall ambient, photochemical conditions and precursor emissions (Pusede et al, 2015). O 3 is influenced by a large variety of,…”

“…These results suggest a stronger role of preceding ozone conditions compared to meteorological variables in northern and southern Europe. Hertig et al (2020) analyzed single and concurrent heat and ozone waves in two climatically different regions, Portugal and Bavaria. They found that for Portugal, representative for southern Europe, synoptic circulation weather types (WT), promoting the inflow of hot and dry air masses, and the advection of ozone and its precursors from remote areas highly influence observed O 3 levels.…”

Associations between Weather, Air Quality and Moderate Extreme Cancer-Related Mortality Events in Augsburg, Southern Germany

“…Adverse effects of low temperatures on overall mortality were, for example, pointed out by Gasparrini et al [43]. Additionally, ozone appears to be of high importance for non-cancer mortality, which is supported by the findings of Hertig et al [62,63]. Still, these findings must be interpreted cautiously, as patient information in the overall mortality dataset is limited.…”