Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs)

Zhou, Mingyuan; Wang, Li Jun; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong Hui; Lin, Hua; Luo, Yuan; Xiao, Jian; Zeng, Weiying; Zhang, Ye Wu; Wang, Xiao Feng; Gu, Xin; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Wen, Jun

doi:10.1186/1476-069x-13-60

Cited by 83 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…To completely capture the overall effects of cold spell exposure, a lag structure of up to 27 days was fitted, which is consistent with previous studies923. Here, CS was separately defined by two thresholds of mean daily temperature (5 th and 2.5 th percentiles) that were used to represent different cold spell intensities; ns means the natural cubic spline function; WS t refers to the daily average wind speed with 3 df s; Another 3 dfs were used to smooth year, calendar month and day to control for secular and seasonal trends; DOW is a dummy variable representing day of the week, and η is vector of coefficients.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…The original source of mortality data were death certificates, which included the causes and dates of death, gender and age. Causes of death were categorized using the International Classification of Diseases 10 th Revision (ICD–10 codes: A00–R99 for non-accidental diseases)23. The codes J00–J99 represent respiratory diseases (RESP), the codes I00-I99 represent cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and the codes I60-I69 represent cerebrovascular diseases (CBD).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The combined CER of the cold effect among different communities was defined as summary CER. A multivariate meta-analysis model was performed to estimate the summary lag structure of cold effects92331.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As climate change has different effects on the geographically diverse regions, changes in extreme events show large regional variations22. Recently, China has experienced frequent and intense cold spells, especially in 2008 when one cold spell seriously affected 20 provinces in south China, resulting in substantial excess mortality23. These findings suggest that it is necessary to assess the impact of cold spells on mortality and the ways cold spell characteristics modify these effects across China.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

Wang

Liu

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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In China, the health impact of cold weather has received little attention, which limits our understanding of the health impacts of climate change. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 66 communities across China from 2006 to 2011. Within each community, we estimated the effect of cold spell exposure on mortality using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). We also examined the modification effect of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing) and individual-specific factors (causes of death, age, gender and education). Meta-analysis method was finally used to estimate the overall effects. The overall cumulative excess risk (CER) of non-accidental mortality during cold spell days was 28.2% (95% CI: 21.4%, 35.3%) compared with non-cold spell days. There was a significant increase in mortality when the cold spell duration and intensity increased or occurred earlier in the season. Cold spell effects and effect modification by cold spell characteristics were more pronounced in south China. The elderly, people with low education level and those with respiratory diseases were generally more vulnerable to cold spells. Cold spells statistically significantly increase mortality risk in China, with greater effects in southern China. This effect is modified by cold spell characteristics and individual-level factors.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

Wang

Liu

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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“…For example, for China, 148 279 excess deaths were attributed to an unusual cold spell in 2008, resulting in an increased mortality of 44%, with the highest effects in southern and central China (Ma et al 2013;Xie et al 2013;Zhou et al 2014). Similarly, for Italy in February 2012, an anomalous period of low temperatures resulted in a 25% increase in mortality among the 751 age group across 14 cities (de'Donato et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Winter Mortality Variability in Five Regions of England Using Back Trajectory Analysis

et al. 2016

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Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. ABSTRACT: This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in England, for the 26-yr period 1974-99, and to reveal possible associations with increased mortality rates. For this purpose, backward airmass trajectories, corresponding to LTE in five regions of England, were deployed. A statistically significant increase in mortality levels, at the 0.05 level, was found for LTE, compared to non-LTE days across all five regions. Seven categories of atmospheric trajectory patterns associated with LTE were identified: east, local, west, North Atlantic, Arctic, southwest, and Scandinavian. Consideration of the link between airmass trajectory patterns and mortality levels by region revealed a possible west-to-east split in the nature of air masses connected with elevated mortality. Specifically, for the West Midlands and northwest regions, relatively warm winter weather conditions from the west, most likely associated with the eastward progression of low pressure systems, are allied with the highest daily average mortality counts, whereas, for the northeast, Humberside/York, and southeast regions, cold continental air advection from northern or eastern Europe, which lasts for several days and is linked with either a blocking pattern over the western margins of Europe or an intense high pressure anomaly over eastern or northern Europe, appears important in mortality terms. This finding confirms that winter weather health associations are complex, such that climate setting and airmass climatology need to be taken into account when considering climate and health relationships.

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Trend analysis of cold extremes in South Africa: 1960–2016

Walt

Fitchett

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extreme cold events (“cold waves”) have disastrous impacts on ecosystem and human health. Evidence shows that these events will still occur under current increasing mean temperatures. Little research has been done on extreme cold events, especially in developing countries such as South Africa. These events pose a significant threat due to the low adaptive capacity, urgent development needs and relatively inadequate infrastructure in South Africa. This study presents annual and seasonal, spatial and temporal trend analyses of extreme cold temperature events for the period 1960–2016. We apply the World Meteorological Organisation Commission for Climatology and Indices Expert Team on Sector‐Specific Climate Indices (ET‐SCI) to South Africa for the first time, with comparison to the World Meteorological Organisation Expert Team on Climate Change Detection (ETCCDI) indices previously used in South Africa. The extreme cold indices are calculated using the RClimDex and ClimPACT, respectively. Trends were calculated using the non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall test, Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient and Sen's slope estimates. A decreasing trend is found for annual cold spell duration and cold wave frequency, at rates of 0.10 days.day−1 and 0.02 events.day−1, respectively. Seasonally, coldest day temperatures increased in autumn, with increases of 0.02°C.day−1 for the period 1960–2016. Regionally, increasing trends in annual cold spell duration days were evident in stations located in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, North‐West Province, at a rate of 0.03 days.day−1. Increasing trends in cold waves were observed for stations in Northern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape Province, at a rate of 0.01 events.day−1. These results contribute to the awareness and recognition of the incidence and duration of cold extreme events in South Africa, seeing that studies suggest that anomalously cold events may persist in a warming world.

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Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs)

Cited by 83 publications

References 47 publications

The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

Exploring Winter Mortality Variability in Five Regions of England Using Back Trajectory Analysis

Trend analysis of cold extremes in South Africa: 1960–2016

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