Has the Northern Ireland Problem Been Solved?

Abstract

The installation of a new power-sharing government in Northern Ireland in May 2007 was widely welcomed as bringing to an end almost 40 years of intercommunal conflict, and as filling a long-standing political vacuum with a set of new democratic institutions. This article explores the nature of the problem that the new institutions were designed to tackle, outlines the complex blueprint (the Good Friday agreement of 1998) that was designed in response, and assesses the capacity of this constitutional master plan to offer political stability, to prevent a return to paramilitary violence, and to provide a stable channel of expression for the political aspirations of the two communities.

The Counterterrorism Conundrum: Understanding Terrorist Organizations, Ideological Warfare and Strategies for Counterintelligence-Based Counterterrorism

“…By enhancing the lives of the Irish aristocracy, Britain was able to gain enough public and political support to cause the people of Northern Ireland not just to avoid participation in the IRA's fight, but to oppose them in favor of the British (McGloin, 2003). This tactic was so effective in Ireland that even today, after Northern Ireland has been granted the right to vote to unite with the Republic, they choose not to (Coakley, 2008). Efforts must be used to ensure that terrorists are viewed as terrorists by local populations in order for counterterrorism operations to succeed.…”

Social Immobility, Ethno-politics, and Sectarian Violence: Obstacles to Post-conflict Reconstruction in Northern Ireland

“…In its seventeenth year at the time this was written, the milestones of Northern Ireland's post-conflict reconstruction generally remain in-tact, including the establishment of a power-sharing, consociational government; significant reforms in policing; (partial) paramilitary disarmament and demobilization; and improvements in equity between Catholics and Protestants on a variety of measures (Coakley 2008;Nolan 2014). A generation of children born after the 1998 Agreement is entering adulthood, while middle-class residents have experienced growth in economic prosperity and have greater options socially.…”

“…Northern Ireland is a prime example of this (Coakley 2008;McGarry and O'Leary 2006;Mitchell et al 2008). When recent violence and ethno-political hostilities are discussed, it is often with the implicit assumptions that they simply mark residuals of the past that will soon fade out or are primordial inevitabilities that must be accepted.…”