Has global deforestation accelerated due to the COVID-19 pandemic?

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, questions arose as to whether the pandemic would amplify or pacify tropical deforestation. Early reports warned of increased deforestation rates; however, these studies were limited to a few months in 2020 or to selected regions. To better understand how the pandemic influenced tropical deforestation globally, this study used historical deforestation data (2004–2019) from the Terra-i pantropical land cover change monitoring system to project expected deforestation trends for 2020, which were used to determine whether observed deforestation deviated from expected trajectories after the first COVID-19 cases were reported. Time series analyses were conducted at the regional level for the Americas, Africa and Asia and at the country level for Brazil, Colombia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia. Our results suggest that the pandemic did not alter the course of deforestation trends in some countries (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia), while it did in others (e.g., Peru). We posit the importance of monitoring the long-term effects of the pandemic on deforestation trends as countries prioritize economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Deforestation Characteristic during a Period 2006 - 2020 over Tropical Forest in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

“…After 2019, the deforestation in Central Kalimantan slowed down and even negative that associated with the absence of long dry season and the occurring of COVID-19 pandemic. But otherwise, evidence reveals that the COVID-19 epidemic has prompted illegitimate, opportunistic forest cutting and mining in tropical nations, endangering forest ecosystems and the inhabitants that depend on them [52][53][54][55][56][57].…”

Global shocks, cascading disruptions, and (re-)connections: viewing the COVID-19 pandemic as concurrent natural experiments to understand land system dynamics

“…This situation, combined with increased demand and value of commodities such as gold, is believed to have aggravated a pre-existing governance vacuum that was leveraged by illegal resource users and criminal groups and led to increased criminality, ecological degradation, land/forest conversion. There are reports and evidence of increases in illegal appropriation of natural resources, e.g., hunting, expansion of agricultural and cattle grazing areas, logging, drug cultivation and trafficking, and alluvial gold mining, all leading to deforestation (Céspedes et al 2022 ; Roig-Boixeda, unpublished data). Overall, the pandemic appears to be a multiplier of existing threats and pressures, rather than a generator of new ones.…”

“…A recent study documenting agricultural frontier expansion in the South American Chaco shows a surge in deforestation after 2019 (Baumann et al 2022 ). This implies increasing forest conversion during the lockdown period, mirroring the situation of other deforestation frontiers globally (Fairbairn 2020 ; Céspedes et al 2022 ). Second, mobility restrictions limited access to both researchers and NGOs conducting conservation activities, thereby disrupting ongoing conservation projects and initiatives.…”

Quantifying Forest Cover Loss during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Charcoal Production Basin of Lubumbashi (DR Congo) through Remote Sensing and Landscape Analysis

“…For instance, crises such as COVID-19 might precipitate an escalation in forest fires due to reduced monitoring capacities [13]. Moreover, the surge in urban unemployment resulting from the pandemic has prompted temporary migration to rural areas, where individuals seek livelihood opportunities such as farming in proximity to forests, thereby exacerbating pressure on these ecosystems [14,15]. Conversely, studies indicate that the initial impacts of COVID-19 might have led to a reduction in deforestation rates due to economic slowdown during containment measures [16].…”

“…Changes in population movement patterns due to travel restrictions and economic impacts have led to displacement to forested areas, exacerbating deforestation, particularly near roads and villages. The pandemic has also influenced the demand for forest products, such as timber and non-timber products, with roads facilitating the transport of these products to markets, and shifts in demand potentially affecting deforestation rates, as observed in Peru [14].…”