Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under Covid-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020

Arita, Shawn; Grant, Jason H.; Sydow, Sharon; Beckman, Jayson

doi:10.3386/w29551

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…research reporting that agricultural trade remained stable during the pandemic (e.g., Arita et al, 2021).…”

Section: Regression Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Static and Dynamic Economic Resilience Indicators for Agrifood Supply Chains: The COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean

Carpio¹,

García²,

Ríos³

et al. 2023

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Given its enormous adverse effects on production systems and the economy, the recent COVID-19 pandemic has heightened interest in studying resilience in agrifood systems; however, only a few studies have used formal methods for resilience measurement. This study's overall objective was to identify, develop, and use indicators to measure the resilience of the agrifood supply chain. Specific research objectives were 1) to identify and develop survey-based indicators of the economic resilience of agribusinesses; 2) to use the indicators to measure and analyze the economic resilience of the agrifood supply chain in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to the COVID-19 pandemic; and 3) to evaluate differences in the economic resilience of agribusinesses in the different supply chain stages to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data for the study were collected through two online surveys conducted in 2020 and 2022. Two resilience indicators were identified and developed: a static (SRES) and a dynamic (DRES) indicator. SRES measures the ability of businesses to avoid business losses within each study period. DRES measures firms capacity to recover business activity after an initial negative revenue shock. Study results reflect that, on average, the LAC agrifood supply chain firms in the sample were able to adapt and recover from the disruptions of a global health pandemic. The effects of the pandemic were not homogeneous across firms, nor was their adaptive resilience to the disruption.

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“…research reporting that agricultural trade remained stable during the pandemic (e.g., Arita et al, 2021).…”

Section: Regression Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Static and Dynamic Economic Resilience Indicators for Agrifood Supply Chains: The COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean

Carpio¹,

García²,

Ríos³

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Analysis of the pandemic indicates agricultural trade has been resilient compared with trade in manufactured products, China accounting for 95% of the observed $20 billion increase in world agricultural trade in 2020 (Arita et al, 2022). The import demand shock, especially for grain and soybean use in animal feed, has been driven by China rebuilding its hog production capacity devastated by African Swine Fever in 2018.…”

Section: The Impact Of Retaliatory Tariffs On Us Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

The United States' power‐based bargaining and the WTO: Has anything really been gained?

Sheldon

2022

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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In this article, adoption of “power‐based” bargaining by the United States in trade negotiations is evaluated. A simple game‐theoretic structure highlights use of “bargaining” tariffs by the United States elicited credible retaliation by China through a trigger strategy, bilateral tariffs returning to a Nash equilibrium. This has come at some cost to US consumers, taxpayers, and farmers, although the latter group has regained market share following implementation of the US–China Phase One Trade Agreement. Unfortunately, the Agreement fails to deal with a key reason for the trade war, the Chinese economic model, and China's use of implicit subsidies.

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“…Concerns as well as doubts have been raised about the Phase One Trade Agreement with respect to the purchase obligations in the Expanding Trade chapter. The COVID‐19 pandemic further exacerbated these doubts as global trade has been affected by negative shocks to supply as well as demand (Arita et al, 2021; Gruszczynski, 2020; Zhang, 2020). This begs the question: Why would China agree to import commitments that seemed, at least on paper, so far out of reach?…”

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confidence: 99%

Can China meet its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement?

Muhammad

Smith

Grant

2021

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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This paper examines China's likelihood of meeting its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement. In 2020, US agricultural exports to China ($27.2 billion) were 85% higher than in 2019 but 18% short of the first-year Phase One goal ($33.4 billion).Evidence shows that many sectors experienced no change, particularly when compared to exports before the trade war. Some sectors benefited from China's overall demand growth and not necessarily from agreement commitments. Although there were substantial increases in exports of other major products (e.g., corn and poultry), these increases could not make up for less than expected soybean exports.

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Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under Covid-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Static and Dynamic Economic Resilience Indicators for Agrifood Supply Chains: The COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean

Static and Dynamic Economic Resilience Indicators for Agrifood Supply Chains: The COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean

The United States' power‐based bargaining and the WTO: Has anything really been gained?

Can China meet its purchase obligations under the Phase One Trade Agreement?

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