Habitat Suitability & Connectivity of Alborz Wild Sheep in the East of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Habitat loss and fragmentation of the wildlife species due to anthropogenic developments have been becoming serious issues in biological conservation. Alborz wild sheep, listed as threatened by IUCN, is distributed in relatively small and isolated patches in an increasingly human dominated landscape in the north-central Iran and east of Tehran. We used maximum entropy modeling to identify habitat areas of the wild sheep, across Jajrud protected area and its neighbouring protected areas including varjin, lar, koohsefid and the surroundings. Regarding to seasonal variation of the species home range, winter, summer and multi seasonal (annual) habitats were predicted. To estimate habitat connectivity, we used models of connectivity based in electrical circuit theory. Applying core areas of multi season for connectivity analysis, movement pattern of the species was predicted and important connective areas for conservation were identified. Species distribution maps revealed that the summer and winter habitats were approximately occurred in similar areas. Distance to eco-guards' post was the most important predictor for both habitat models of summer and winter. The annual model, which is a combination of summer and winter, shows that the largest suitable habitat patches are located in the north, south and west of the study area. Maximum current flow map demonstrates that the areas among patch pairs are covered in low current, reflecting low rates of the species dispersal. This map presented bottlenecks to the species movement across major roads and along extending human settlements. Cumulative current flow map displayed that current was highest in Jajrud north of Mamloo extending to the northern Jajrud. Overall, our study demonstrated a prediction of habitat suitability and connectivity for Alborz wild sheep in east of Tehran, which can be used to direct conservation endeavours dealing with maintenance of the wild sheep metapopulation dynamics.