Habitat quality evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction in Shenzhen based on PLUS and InVEST models

Abstract

Based on the PLUS model, research proposed a method to adjust the probability of land use transition to reduce the calculation error of the number of pixels. The refined algorithm is applied to simulate Shenzhen land use situation in 2030 under a progressive scenario using three periods of Shenzhen land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020. Then, InVEST model was employed to evaluate the distribution situation and future trends of habitat quality in Shenzhen during the study period. Following are the conclusions: 1) The construction land in Shenzhen expanded rapidly and the ecological land gradually shrank during the research period. The proportion of artificial surface area increased by about 45.4% (304.98 km2) within 20 years. 2) By simulating the land use situation of Shenzhen in 2030, the results revealed that the land use change of Shenzhen in the future is mainly concentrated in the central and western regions. 3) The overall average habitat quality of Shenzhen was at a medium level, but the habitat quality showed a continuous degradation trend in each year throughout the study period. Spatially, the habitat quality degradation are mainly concentrated in Shenzhen’s central and western region. 4) Under the natural development scenario, Shenzhen’s habitat quality would experience a sharp decline by 2030. The habitat quality of the conservation area is guaranteed to a certain degree, but the artificial surface expansion outside the area will still affect the habitat quality in the boundary constraint scenario; Only in scenario of ecological priority, the habitat quality of Shenzhen has been restored and improved to a large extent. 5) In order to slow down the degradation trend and improve the regional ecological environment. It is necessary not only to strictly implement various protection boundaries delineated in the context of Territorial Spatial Planning, but also to implement the policy of “Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver” in the process of urban development. Government should reasonably control the scale of cities, optimize the ecological compensation mechanism, and implement ecological restoration policies such as returning farmland to forests and returning farmland to grassland.

Construction of ecological security pattern and connectivity stability evaluation under multi-scenarios simulation : a case study of desert-oasis area in the Yellow River Basin, China

“…In Addition,base on predicted to the future land use change under multiple scenarios,we can simulate to carbon storage (Carpio A et al,2021;Milton et al,2020), habitat quality (Li et al,2018;Wang et al,2023), urban heat island intensity (Li et al,2021), ecological risk (Gao,2022),ecosystem services (Sun et al,2021),landscape patterns (Zhao et al,2023) ,and so on. In this way,quantitative simulation of future scenario can be realized,which better support the planning strategy needed to achieve sustainable development (Pan et al,2022).…”

Temporal and Spatial Variations in Landscape Habitat Quality under Multiple Land-Use/Land-Cover Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model in the Yangtze River Basin, China

“…To explore land-use changes in the YRB under different development goals based on Chinese watershed policy and previous experience [36,37], this paper sets up four different LUCC transformation matrices to predict and simulate land use in the Yangtze River Basin in 2030. Natural development scenario (NDS): the parameters are not adjusted based on the extrapolation of existing trends.…”

Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of habitat quality in the Yellow River Basin

“…In this study, two scenarios were developed based on existing research (Gao et al, 2022;Yang et al, 2022;Hu et al, 2023;Reheman et al, 2023;Wang et al, 2023a) Scenario II: The ECD takes into consideration the different areas in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the YRB, which have very different natural conditions and ecological priorities. The ECD allows for improved targeting and effectiveness of policies and engineering measures while promoting protection and action by zoning and classification.…”