Habitat networks and food security: promoting species range shift under climate change depends on life history and the dynamics of land use choices

Gimona, Alessandro; Poggio, Laura; Polhill, Gary; Castellazzi, Marie

doi:10.1007/s10980-015-0158-8

Cited by 14 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Where the longer term impacts of environmental or landscape change on animal populations are considered, studies rarely treat the landscape as a temporally dynamic system [262,290], instead running separate simulations with and without a prescribed landscape change (e.g. [19,204,291]). We believe that the future of landscape ecological modelling is in moving beyond models of human-environment systems which commonly consider only a unidirectional interaction, (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They have been used to address questions at a range of spatial and temporal scales varying from models of home range dynamics and daily movements [200,201] to multi-decadal models of species range shifting [19]. IBMs have also been used extensively to study landscape connectivity: identifying threats to populations [202] and testing the impacts of future scenarios [203,204]. Notably a stochastic IBM approach has recently been demonstrated to provide better estimates of inter-patch connectivity (in terms of correlation with genetic estimates) than least-cost path and circuit theory approaches [205].…”

Section: Process-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

Synes

Brown

Watts

et al. 2016

Curr Landscape Ecol Rep

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Landscape ecological modelling provides a vital means for understanding the interactions between geographical, climatic, and socio-economic drivers of land-use and the dynamics of ecological systems. This growing field is playing an increasing role in informing landscape spatial planning and management. Here, we review the key modelling approaches that are used in landscape modelling and in ecological modelling. We identify an emerging theme of increasingly detailed representation of process in both landscape and ecological modelling, with complementary suites of modelling approaches ranging from correlative, through aggregated process based approaches to models with much greater structural realism that often represent behaviours at the level of agents or individuals. We provide examples of the considerable progress that has been made at the intersection of landscape modelling and ecological modelling, while also highlighting that the majority of this work has to date exploited a relatively small number of the possible combinations of model types from each discipline. We use this review to identify key gaps in existing landscape ecological modelling effort and highlight emerging opportunities, in particular for future work to progress in novel directions by combining classes of landscape models and ecological models that have rarely been used together.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Process-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

Synes

Brown

Watts

et al. 2016

Curr Landscape Ecol Rep

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“…Generally, models of the forestry sector are not as numerous as models of agriculture, and this imbalance is also present in models that consider climate change and, especially, human behavior. In fact, changes in forestry are often modeled as a simple consequence of changes in agriculture, or as purely economic responses to taxes or subsidies 20,62,64,68,74,91 . This paucity of modeled forms of management and behavior does not necessarily impede consideration of some kinds of mitigation or adaptation, 86 but it does mean that their full variety and complexity cannot be considered.…”

Section: Review Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land‐based sectors

Brown

Alexander

Holzhauer

et al. 2017

WIREs Climate Change

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Models of the land system are essential to our understanding of the magnitude and impacts of climate change. These models are required to represent a large number of processes in different sectors, but face particular challenges in describing the individual and social behaviors that underpin climate change mitigation and adaptation. We assess descriptions of these behaviors in existing models, their commonalities and differences, and the uses to which they have been put. We find that behavioral models have a distinct and important role to play in climate research, but that they currently suffer from being strongly sectoral in nature, with agricultural models being the most common and behaviorally rich. There are also clear convergences, with economic‐based decision‐making remaining dominant and behaviors such as diffusion, interaction, anticipation, or learning remaining relatively neglected. Active climate change is also rarely modeled, with adaptation and mitigation generally represented as responses to economic drivers under static climatic conditions. Furthermore, dynamic behaviors, objectives, or decision‐making processes are almost entirely absent, despite their clear relevance to climate change responses. We conclude that models have been more successful in the identification of important processes than in their implementation and that, while some behavioral processes may remain impossible to model, behavioral models of adaptation and mitigation in land‐based sectors have substantial unexplored potential. We suggest that greater attention be paid to the cumulative coverage of models in this field, and that improvements in the representation of certain key behaviors be prioritized. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e448. doi: 10.1002/wcc.448 This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Representing Uncertainty

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“…Land system science has made major progress in understanding land use change (Rounsevell et al 2012) and has highlighted the need to manage natural capital to ensure a continued provision of ecosystem services (Bateman et al 2013;Lawler et al 2014), including climate regulation (Stone 2009), sustainable food provision (Branca et al 2013;Harvey and Pilgrim 2011;Smith 2013) and the preservation of our cultural (Beilin et al 2014;Palomo et al 2014) and natural heritage (Gimona et al 2015). From this research we know we need to reduce our environmental footprint (Gerbens-Leenes and Nonhebel 2002;Hoekstra and Wiedmann 2014), and that individual citizens will play a major role in this (Bin and Dowlatabadi 2005;Vandenbergh and Steinemann 2007), e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

et al. 2017

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The aspirations, motivations and choices of individual European citizens are a major driver of the future of global, European and local land use. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future. This paper forms a first attempt to survey European citizens to understand their desired future lives in relation to consequences for European land use. We used a crowdsourcing experiment to elicit visions from young Europeans about their lives in 2040. Participants completed a graphic novel around carefully selected questions, allowing them to create a story of their imagined future lives in pictures. The methodology worked well, and the sample seemed reasonably representative albeit skewed towards an educated population. In total, 1131 responses from 29 countries were received. Results show a strong desire for change, and for more sustainable lifestyles. There is desire for local and ecologically friendly food production, to eat less meat, to have access to green infrastructure and the ability to cycle to work. However, international travel remains popular, and the desire for extensive food production and owning detached houses with gardens will likely result in complex land use trade-offs. Future work could focus more specifically on quantifying these trade-offs and inform respondents about the consequences of their lifestyle choices. This was a first attempt to use crowdsourcing to understand citizen visions for their lives in the future, and our lessons learned will help future studies improve representativeness and increase responses.

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Habitat networks and food security: promoting species range shift under climate change depends on life history and the dynamics of land use choices

Cited by 14 publications

References 59 publications

Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

Emerging Opportunities for Landscape Ecological Modelling

Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land‐based sectors

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

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