Habitat monitoring and projections for Canada lynx: linking the Landsat archive with carnivore occurrence and prey density

Abstract

1. Habitat degradation is the leading threat to US federally listed species, but monitoring changes in habitat extent, fragmentation or quality is not generally included in species recovery plans. 2. Consecutive satellite images of the same area through time are commonly used to assess landscape changes, and image data are increasingly used to generate predictor variables for species-habitat models. A time series of satellite images has, however, rarely been used in conjunction with a species-habitat model to map changes in habitat extent or to predict wildlife-habitat dynamics through time. 3. We used a time series of forest disturbance encompassing 16 530 km 2 of forestland in Maine to map and quantify change in forest types that influence probability of occurrence (POC) of the threatened Canada lynx Lynx canadensis. Integration with a predictive occurrence model developed from landscape conditions c. 2004 allowed us to retrospectively assess changes at 2-to 4-year intervals, update predictions (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) and project the spatial distribution and extent of lynx foraging habitat over the next decade. 4. Between 1975 and 1991, 40% of mature conifer forest in our study area was removed by stand-replacing harvests, coincident with the last regional outbreak of eastern spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.). As those areas regenerated between 1991 and 2010, POC increased dramatically as broad-scale habitat conditions for lynx's primary prey, snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, improved. Projections suggest that continued forest regrowth will provide new habitat over the next decade, but fragmentation will increase, and by 2022 the habitat distribution will shift southwards into areas where climate change or interspecific competition may limit lynx population expansion. 5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation planning for vagile species that depend on ephemeral forest types, such as the Canada lynx in the north-eastern USA, requires habitat monitoring strategies that can adapt to changing landscape conditions. Although Maine's lynx population has increased since the 1990s, we recommend that continued monitoring of lynx habitat and population status is critical given habitat and climate uncertainty. We also recommend that habitat management efforts be targeted not only at areas currently occupied by lynx but also where habitat loss is expected to occur near-term from succession or in anticipation of the next budworm outbreak.

Interactive range‐limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

“…Expansion was also associated with the emergence of positive unlinked biotic factors (e.g. habitat availability); however, this occurred within the range of environmental conditions that suited the focal species but not its competitors (Hoving et al, 2003;Kelly, Fuller, & Kanter, 2009;Simons-Legaard, Harrison, & Legaard, 2016 (Table 3). A common theme of these studies was that a strong abiotic factor was required for range expansion along lower limits.…”

Automated Inundation Mapping Over Large Areas Using Landsat Data and Google Earth Engine

“…However, dependent on the intended use of the inundation maps, such broad spatial resolution may result in unacceptable simplification of the complex mosaic of the delta [8]. Further, high spatial resolution information can increase confidence in associated decision-making [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Broad spatial resolution can be downscaled to achieved finer spatial resolution, if access to high temporal resolution data is a pertinent factor [8,[26][27][28].…”

Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations

“…In particular, forests in temperate regions will be increasingly exposed to drought in the 21st century (Müller-Haubold, Hertel, Seidel, Knutzen, & Leuschner, 2013), which may accelerate rates of tree decline and mortality in Europe (Bréda, Huc, Granier, & Dreyer, 2006;Müller-Haubold et al, 2013). Plant range shifts may determine whether those animal species that rely on plant availability for both food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy/abundance (Cianfrani, Broennimann, Loy, & Guisan, 2018;Nielsen, McDermid, Stenhouse, & Boyce, 2010;Shen et al, 2015;Simons-Legaard, Harrison, & Legaard, 2016;Zang et al, 2017) and/or by plant population declines or extinction cascades via bottom-up effects (Roberts, Nielsen, & Stenhouse, 2014). In the case of small, isolated and/or endangered animal populations, the effects of climate change on their trophic resources may considerably override conservation and management efforts performed at other levels, for example, reduction of humanwildlife conflicts, threat of anthropogenic footprints and activities.…”