Habitat modelling of key copepod species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean based on the Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program

Albouy-Boyer, Séverine; Plourde, Stéphane; Pepin, Pierre; Johnson, Catherine L.; Lehoux, Caroline; Galbraith, Peter S.; Hebert, Dave; Lazin, Gordana; Lafleur, Caroline

doi:10.1093/plankt/fbw020

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Additionally, Albouy-Boyer et al . 36 find that these variables, along with stratification and chlorophyll, were significant in modelling C . finmarchicus presence or abundance.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 71%

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Grieve

Hare

Saba

2017

Sci Rep

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Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

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“…Additionally, Albouy-Boyer et al . 36 find that these variables, along with stratification and chlorophyll, were significant in modelling C . finmarchicus presence or abundance.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 71%

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Grieve

Hare

Saba

2017

Sci Rep

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“…Prediction spatial resolution can also influence the trends and patterns; Jones, Dye, Pinnegar, Warren, and Cheung () found that species envelope models using different prediction grid sizes can affect the magnitude of trends and changes over time. As zooplankton distribution models become available for the northwest Atlantic (Albouy‐Boyer, Plourde, & Pepin, ), oceanographic and zooplankton spatial predictions can be used to refine Atlantic mackerel habitat suitability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking shifts in Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) larval habitat suitability on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

McManus

Hare

Richardson

et al. 2017

Fisheries Oceanography

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Climate change has altered the oceanographic environment and subsequently the habitats of marine species. Fish and invertebrate populations' responses to habitat include movement with latitude and depth to remain within their fundamental niches. The northwest Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) population has fluctuated over the last century due in part to changes in the environment. We used species distribution models to understand the influence of the physical (temperature) and biological (zooplankton) environment on mackerel larval abundance, and how such relations have determined larval habitat suitability in the Northeast U.S. Shelf.Atlantic mackerel larval presence and abundance correlated with sea temperature and copepod abundances, suggesting that larval survival may be sensitive to specific temperatures and zooplankton prey. Predicted abundances were spatially interpo- K E Y W O R D SAtlantic mackerel, habitat suitability, larvae, Northeast U.S. Shelf, sea temperature, species distribution models, zooplankton

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“…P 3 and NO 3 − were excluded from our model since they were less significant compared to SSS. We used combinations of remaining variables to fit an ensemble of GAMMs that we evaluated through cross-validation as described in Albouy-Boyer et al (2016). Random selection was used to generate a training set comprised of 70% of our full data set.…”

Section: Gamm Fitting For a Catenella Bloom Occurrencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella Along Canada’s East Coast

et al. 2021

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Alexandrium catenella produces paralytic shellfish toxins that affect marine fisheries and aquaculture as well as ecosystem and human health worldwide. This harmful algal species is extremely sensitive to environmental conditions and potentially to future climate change. Using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) we studied the potential effects of changing salinity and temperatures on A. catenella bloom (≥1000 cells L–1) occurrence along Canada’s East Coast throughout the 21st century. Our GAMM was applied to two high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5) and one mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5). Under present-day conditions, our model successfully predicted A. catenella’s spatio-temporal distribution in Eastern Canada. Under future conditions, all scenarios predict increases in bloom frequency and spatial extent as well as changes in bloom seasonality. Under one RCP 8.5 scenario, A. catenella bloom occurrences increased at up to 3.5 days per decade throughout the 21st century, with amplified year-to-year variability. Blooms expanded into the Gulf of St. Lawrence and onto the Scotian Shelf. These conditions could trigger unprecedented bloom events in the future throughout our study region. In all climate scenarios, the bloom season intensified earlier (May–June) and ended later (October). In some areas of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the thermal habitat of A. catenella was exceeded, thereby locally reducing bloom risk during the summer months. We conclude that an increase in A. catenella’s environmental bloom window could further threaten marine fauna including endangered species as well as fisheries and aquaculture industries on Canada’s East Coast. Similar impacts could be felt in other coastal regions of the globe where warming and freshening of waters are intensifying.

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Habitat modelling of key copepod species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean based on the Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program

Cited by 16 publications

References 65 publications

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Tracking shifts in Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) larval habitat suitability on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella Along Canada’s East Coast

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