Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Abstract

Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

The role of sand lances (Ammodytes sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic Ecosystem: A synthesis of current knowledge with implications for conservation and management

“…Whether this favourable match between primary and secondary production in the western Gulf of Maine continues in the future is uncertain. Long‐term habitat modelling (that does not take into account advective supply) suggests a long‐term decline in regional C. finmarchicus abundance (Grieve, Hare, & Saba, 2017). As C. finm archicus represents the primary source of lipids to pelagic consumers in the Gulf of Maine, a reduction in its availability may have consequences not only for NWA Ammodytes but also for the broader regional food web (Johnson et al, 2011).…”

North Atlantic right whale shift to the Gulf of St. Lawrence in 2015, revealed by long-term passive acoustics

“…The recent increased NARW presence in the Gulf of St. Lawrence appears to be connected with the changes observed in southern PAM series, especially the reduction of the occurrence in their traditional feeding ground between Cape Cod and the Eastern Scotian Shelf. This reduction has been attributed to changes in ocean conditions affecting their main prey in this region (Greene et al 2013, Meyer-Gutbrod et al 2015, Greene 2016, Grieve et al 2017, Hayes et al 2018a. The coincident decrease in NARW population growth rate might be linked to the same ocean process because of the strong link between birth rates and prey availability (Meyer-Gutbrod & Greene 2018).…”

Marine Species Range Shifts Necessitate Advanced Policy Planning: The Case of the North Atlantic Right Whale

“…Although previous observations of C. finmarchicus declines in the Gulf of Maine have been related to natural climate oscillations and variability in water mass advection (Pershing et al, 2010;Greene et al, 2013;Davies et al, 2014), anthropogenic warming will also play a role in right whale prey availability. Because the Gulf of Maine constitutes the southern edge of suitable habitat for this subarctic copepod species, forecasts of future warming predict significant declines in C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine within this century (Reygondeau and Beaugrand, 2011;Grieve et al, 2017).…”