Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index Applied to Major Vegetation Types of the Western Interior United States

Abstract

We applied a framework to assess climate change vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the western United States to provide spatially-explicit input to adaptive management decisions. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience; the latter derived from analyses of ecosystem sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Measures of climate change exposure used observed climate change (1981-2014) and then climate projections for the mid-21st century (2040-2069 RCP 4.5). Measures of resilience included (under ecosystem sensitivity) landscape intactness, invasive species, fire regime alteration, and forest insect & disease risk, and (under adaptive capacity), measures for topo-climate variability, diversity with functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. Outputs are generated per 100km2 hexagonal area for each type. As of 2014, moderate climate change vulnerability was indicated for >50% of the area of 50 of 52 types. By the mid-21st century, all but 19 types face high or very high vulnerability with >50% of the area scoring in these categories. Measures for resilience explain most components of vulnerability as of 2014, with most targeted vegetation scoring low in adaptive capacity measures and variably for specific sensitivity measures. Elevated climate exposure explains increases in vulnerability between the current and mid-century time periods.

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

“…Our analysis is based on the NatureServe Terrestrial Ecological Systems, a classification of 642 vegetation ‘types’ that have been extensively described and mapped at high resolution by resource managers in the conterminous US through a combination of remote sensing and extensive ground surveys (Comer et al, ; Gergely & McKerrow, ; Rollins, ) and widely used in ecological assessments (e.g., Aycrigg et al, ; Comer et al, , ; Thorne et al, ). Each of these vegetation types represents a recurring natural plant community defined by dominant and diagnostic plant species and their characteristic environment (Comer et al, ).…”

Spatiotemporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Ecosystem Vulnerability on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

“…Similarly, Alexander et al [ 12 ] assessed the vulnerability of tropical ecosystems in southern Ecuador and found differences in ecosystem vulnerability under different climate scenarios. Patrick et al [ 13 ] investigated the vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the western United States exposed to changes in temperature and precipitation under RCP 4.5 scenarios (RCP4.5, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, a moderate emission scenario proposed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). Their results showed that by the middle of the 21st century, 33 vegetation types will be faced with high or very high vulnerability, of which more than 50% will have higher regional vulnerability levels.…”

Projections of Brazilian biomes resilience and socio-environmental risks to climate change

“…Using a different approach, Comer et al, (2019) created an index to assess habitat vulnerability to climate change by modeling resilience from the inclusion of factors such as intact landscapes, invasive species, alteration of the fire regime, forest insects and risk of diseases. In a recent review, Chambers, Allen e Cushman, (2019) tried to operationalize the concept of resilience from a explicitly spatial conceptual framework.…”