Projections of Brazilian biomes resilience and socio-environmental risks to climate change

Abstract

Climate change has been considered, at a global level, as one of the main anthropogenic drivers of environmental transformation, especially on biomes, ecosystems and the most vulnerable population. In this regard, the concept of resilience has been widely used in ecology to explain the ecosystem transition thresholds by which forests and other habitats are able to restructure in the face of various external disturbances. However, the concept of resilience in facing climate change impacts and risks through the lens of socio-environmental risks in Brazil is still underdeveloped, especially at the biome level. This article uses the theory of critical transitions to ecological niche distribution modeling in future global warming scenarios by the end of the century, in order to highlight the change in ecological resilience of the Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest and Pampa biomes, and how the changes in resilience can lead to an increased exposure, vulnerabilities and risks to socio-environmental security. This article shows how an interdisciplinary approach bringing together modeling of biome resilience may be a tool to support decision making and public policies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change and reduce risks to socio-environmental security.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes

“…The work of 80 employ the theory of critical transitions to analyze and project significant changes in Brazilian biomes. In the Amazon, climate change is leading to increased tree mortality, reduced forest biomass, and more frequent fire episodes, resulting in biodiversity loss and diminished ecosystem services.…”

Revisiting the past to understand the present and future of soil health in Brazil

“…However, the Amazon rainforest is not the only Brazilian biome at risk of destruction. Deforestation, burning, and loss of biodiversity are also occurring in the swampland of Pantanal, in the Pampa, and the Cerrado and Caatinga regions with semiarid climates (9,10).…”