Guilty, not guilty, or …? multiple options in jury verdict choices

Smithson, Michael; Deady, Sara; Gracik, Lavinia

doi:10.1002/bdm.572

Cited by 20 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Such models have been widely applied in analysing variables that are constrained between 0 and 1 and are either positively or negatively skewed. 11 , 12 , 13 …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Thomas

Burger

Harper

et al. 2017

The Lancet Global Health

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SummaryBackgroundThe life expectancy of HIV-positive individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approaching that of HIV-negative people. However, little is known about how these populations compare in terms of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We aimed to compare HRQoL between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa.MethodsAs part of the HPTN 071 (PopART) study, data from adults aged 18–44 years were gathered between Nov 28, 2013, and March 31, 2015, in large cross-sectional surveys of random samples of the general population in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. HRQoL data were collected with a standardised generic measure of health across five domains. We used β-distributed multivariable models to analyse differences in HRQoL scores between HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals who were unaware of their status; aware, but not in HIV care; in HIV care, but who had not initiated ART; on ART for less than 5 years; and on ART for 5 years or more. We included controls for sociodemographic variables, herpes simplex virus type-2 status, and recreational drug use.FindingsWe obtained data for 19 750 respondents in Zambia and 18 941 respondents in South Africa. Laboratory-confirmed HIV status was available for 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 18 004 respondents in South Africa; 4128 (21%) of these 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 4012 (22%) of 18 004 respondents in South Africa had laboratory-confirmed HIV. We obtained complete HRQoL information for 19 637 respondents in Zambia and 18 429 respondents in South Africa. HRQoL scores did not differ significantly between individuals who had initiated ART more than 5 years previously and HIV-negative individuals, neither in Zambia (change in mean score −0·002, 95% CI −0·01 to 0·001; p=0·219) nor in South Africa (0·000, −0·002 to 0·003; p=0·939). However, scores did differ between HIV-positive individuals who had initiated ART less than 5 years previously and HIV-negative individuals in Zambia (−0·006, 95% CI −0·008 to −0·003; p<0·0001). A large proportion of people with clinically confirmed HIV were unaware of being HIV-positive (1768 [43%] of 4128 people in Zambia and 2026 [50%] of 4012 people in South Africa) and reported good HRQoL, with no significant differences from that of HIV-negative people (change in mean HRQoL score −0·001, 95% CI −0·003 to 0·001, p=0·216; and 0·001, −0·001 to 0·001, p=0·997, respectively). In South Africa, HRQoL scores were lower in HIV-positive individuals who were aware of their status but not enrolled in HIV care (change in mean HRQoL −0·004, 95% CI −0·01 to −0·001; p=0·010) and those in HIV care but not on ART (−0·008, −0·01 to −0·004; p=0·001) than in HIV-negative people, but the magnitudes of difference were small.InterpretationART is successful in helping to reduce inequalities in HRQoL between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in this general population sample. These findings highlight the importance of improving awareness of HIV status and expanding ART to prevent losses in HRQoL...

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“…Such models have been widely applied in analysing variables that are constrained between 0 and 1 and are either positively or negatively skewed. 11 , 12 , 13 …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Thomas

Burger

Harper

et al. 2017

The Lancet Global Health

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“…In psychology, Smithson [57] used beta regression to evaluate jurors' assessments of the probability of a defendant's guilt and their verdicts in trial courts. Beta regression has also been used to model quality-adjusted life years in health cost-effectiveness studies [58,59].…”

Section: Beta Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preventing Disparities: Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Assessing Fairness in Machine-Learning Decision-Support Models

McNair¹

2018

New Insights Into Bayesian Inference

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Machine-learning (ML) methods are finding increasing application to guide human decision-making in many fields. Such guidance can have important consequences, including treatments and outcomes in health care. Recently, growing attention has focused on the potential that machine-learning might automatically learn unjust or discriminatory, but unrecognized or undisclosed, patterns that are manifested in available observational data and the human processes that gave rise to them, and thereby inadvertently perpetuating and propagating injustices that are embodied in the historical data. We applied two frequentist methods that have long been utilized in the courts and elsewhere for the purpose of ascertaining fairness (Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test and beta regression) and one Bayesian method (Bayesian Model Averaging). These methods revealed that our ML model for guiding physicians' prescribing discharge beta-blocker medication for post-coronary artery bypass patients do not manifest significant untoward race-associated disparity. The methods also showed that our ML model for directing repeat performance of MRI imaging in children with medulloblastoma did manifest racial disparities that are likely associated with ethnic differences in informed consent and desire for information in the context of serious malignancies. The relevance of these methods to ascertaining and assuring fairness in other ML-based decision-support model-development and-curation contexts is discussed.

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“…Jurors fi nd it particularly diffi cult to apply different standards of proof to different elements of the case, as is often required in capital cases (e.g., beyond a reasonable doubt for aggravation but preponderance of the evidence for mitigation; Eisenberg & Wells, 1993 ). Related to the standard of proof, researchers should also continue research into the effect of providing juries with multiple verdict options, such as "guilty but mentally ill" (as opposed to simply guilty), "not proven" (as opposed to simply not guilty), and lesser included offenses (Smithson, Deady, & Gracik, 2007 ).…”

Section: Future Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances in Psychology and Law

Robbennolt

2016

Advances in Psychology and Law

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Guilty, not guilty, or …? multiple options in jury verdict choices

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Preventing Disparities: Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Assessing Fairness in Machine-Learning Decision-Support Models

Advances in Psychology and Law

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