Growth patterns in mature desalination technologies and analogies with the energy field

Abstract

This article uses logistic growth curves to analyze and compare the historical dynamics in technology deployment and unit upscaling experimented by the three main desalination technologies: multi-effect distillation (MED), multi-flash distillation (MSF) and reverse osmosis (RO). It also explores whether these dynamics follow a number of patterns identified in another well studied technology family with increasing strategic importance for desalination, i.e. energy technologies. The analysis suggests that thermal technologies (MED and MSF) are in an advanced growth phase and approaching saturation, with deployment levels likely to peak before 2050. The logistic fit for RO lacks enough significance to derive meaningful future capacity projections. RO also shows a remarkably high average-to-maximum unit capacity ratio mirroring a modular and more granular nature. Meanwhile, the three technologies are found to meet a series of common patterns in the temporal and spatial sequence of deployment identified in energy technologies. Based on such patterns and technology natures, PV-RO hybrid systems may hold the highest potential to overcome the cost and energy footprint challenges of desalination in the future. This analysis can guide the integration of desalination into modelling frameworks intended to assess future technological scenarios to address water scarcity and sustainable development goals related challenges.

Unraveling the Historical Economies of Scale and Learning Effects for Desalination Technologies

“…In addition, a remarkable observation worth mentioning is the detection of a trend break in the de-scaled learning curves for the three technologies corresponding to the final stage during the period 2006-2015 (see supporting information Table S1). In the case of thermal technologies, the trend break may reflect the beginning of a "final slow down" phase marked by the reduction of learning concurrent to the decline in the industrial growth rate (Mayor, 2019). As for RO, the earlier stage of technological maturity and higher level of uncertainty on the possible evolution of future growth rates opens up a wider range of possible learning scenarios.…”

Mathematical and optimization modelling in desalination: State-of-the-art and future direction

“…Although membrane technology, specifically reverse osmosis (RO), makes up the majority of installed desalination capacity worldwide, thermal desalination remains the dominant technology in the Middle East. The two major thermal desalination technologies employed are multi-evaporation distillation (MED) and multistage flash (MSF), both of which are in an advanced growth phase, likely to reach saturation before 2050, as identified by Mayor [7]. On the other hand, most of the newly installed desalination capacity around the world operates on RO membranes, which not only are more energy efficient than thermal desalination processes, but also provide modularity and ease of operation [7].…”

“…However, although research in nanofiltration modelling was indeed stagnant or moving towards decline during this period, the last three years have shown a resurgence of interest in this area with more than a two-fold increase in the number of publications with 'nanofiltration' and 'modelling' in their title (Figure 8). East, where the cost of energy is relatively low and the feed seawater is of higher, often aggressive, salinity [7,55]. Fouling, which is the unwanted accumulation of solid materials on the heat transfer surface, increases the thermal resistance and leads to performance deterioration [56].…”

Cellulose triacetate/LUDOX‐SiO2 nanocomposite for synthesis of pervaporation desalination membranes

“…RO also needs extensive feed pre-treatment due to the high susceptibility of the RO membranes to fouling and inorganic scaling, so that this technology is still relatively expensive to produce fresh water. 3 Alternative membrane-based desalination processes aiming to integrate waste heat utilization or solar energy to drive the separation process, such as, forward osmosis (FO) 4 and membrane distillation (MD), 5 have been developed to address the aforementioned RO desalination issues. However, FO is facing significant challenges in finding effective and easily regenerable draw solution materials [6][7][8] while MD often has a high fouling propensity due to the use of hydrophobic membranes.…”

“…However, the high‐applied pressure in RO, especially at elevated feed salinity, results in an unfavorable high operating cost. RO also needs extensive feed pre‐treatment due to the high susceptibility of the RO membranes to fouling and inorganic scaling, so that this technology is still relatively expensive to produce fresh water 3 …”