Gold price prediction based on the Monte Carlo method

Abstract

Gold is a precious metal that attracts the attention of authors from various fields. Due to its wide application in various industries, it is a very important resource for the business of many companies. In this paper, the price of gold was predicted for a period of one year, based on historical data, for approximately five years. Price forecasting was performed based on the Monte Carlo method, and the simulation itself was performed in the MATLAB software. The aim of this paper is to help the management of companies for which gold is a significant resource in planning and making business and financial decisions. The result of the forecast allows the management to create different scenarios to be ready to react to almost any situation on the market, and thus to maintain the position of the company they lead.