Goes-13 IR Images for Rainfall Forecasting in Hurricane Storms

Abstract

Currently, it is possible to access a large amount of satellite weather information from monitoring and forecasting severe storms. However, there are no methods of employing satellite images that can improve real-time early warning systems in different regions of Mexico. The auto-estimator is the most commonly used technique that was developed for specific locations in the United States of America (32°–49° latitude) for the type of convective storms. However, the estimation of precipitation intensities for meteorological conditions in tropic latitudes, using the auto-estimator technique, needs to be re-adjusted and calibrated. It is necessary to improve this type of technique that allows decision-makers to have hydro-informatic tools capable of improving early warning systems in tropical regions (15°–25° Mexican tropic latitude). The main objective of the work is to estimate rainfall from satellite imagery in the infrared (IR) spectrum from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), validating these estimates with a network of surface rain gauges. Using the GOES-13 IR images every 15 min and using the auto-estimator, a downscaling of six hurricanes was performed from which surface precipitation events were measured. The two main difficulties were to match the satellite images taken every 15 min with the surface data measured every 10 min and to develop a program in C+ that would allow the systematic analysis of the images. The results of this work allow us to get a new adjustment of coefficients in a new equation of the auto-estimator, valid for rain produced by hurricanes, something that has not been done until now. Although no universal relationship has been found for hurricane rainfall, it is evident that the original formula of the auto-estimator technique needs to be modified according to geographical latitude.