Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections

Abstract

Climate classifications can provide an effective tool for integrated assessment of climate model results. We present an analysis of future global climate projections performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project by means of Köppen-Trewartha classification. Maps of future climate type distributions were created along with the analysis of the ensemble spread. The simulations under scenarios with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 showed a substantial decline in ice cap, tundra, and boreal climate in the warming world, accompanied by an expansion of temperate climates, dry climates, and savanna, nearly unanimous within the CMIP5 ensemble. Results for the subtropical climate types were generally not conclusive. Changes in climate zones were also analyzed in comparison with the individual model performance for the historical period 1961−1990. The magnitude of change was higher than model errors only for tundra, boreal, and temperate continental climate types. For other types, the response was mostly smaller than model error, or there was considerable disagreement among the ensemble members. Altogether, around 14% of the continental area is expected to change climate types by the end of the 21st century under the projected RCP4.5 forcing and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Projected shift of Köppen–Geiger zones in the central Europe: A first insight into the implications for ecosystems and the society

“…This result was confirmed by Rubel and Kottek (2010), who investigated denser data sets of observed data, global circulation models and emission scenarios. The most recent studies based on the newest global climate model simulations from CMIP5 ensemble (e.g., Mahlstein et al, 2013;Feng et al, 2014;Belda et al, 2016) and using the Köppen-Trewartha classification reported a retreat of polar climate zones and expanding warmer and drier types. The authors also pointed out the large uncertainty among models (Mahlstein et al, 2013;Belda et al, 2016) and attributed the projected shifts of climate types during the 21st century mainly to temperature changes (Feng et al, 2014).…”

“…The most recent studies based on the newest global climate model simulations from CMIP5 ensemble (e.g., Mahlstein et al, 2013;Feng et al, 2014;Belda et al, 2016) and using the Köppen-Trewartha classification reported a retreat of polar climate zones and expanding warmer and drier types. The authors also pointed out the large uncertainty among models (Mahlstein et al, 2013;Belda et al, 2016) and attributed the projected shifts of climate types during the 21st century mainly to temperature changes (Feng et al, 2014). Another study of Alessandri et al (2014) focused on the assessment of Mediterranean climate from the CMIP5 model ensemble during the 21st century and found polewards shifts of KGC subtypes Csa and Csb based on RCP4.5 (medium-low) greenhouse gases concentration scenario.…”

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

“…Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined ( figures 1-4), facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. The data reported here present a major advance over earlier attempts at mapping bioclimate shifts (e.g Alessandri et al 2014, Beck et al 2005, Belda et al 2016, Jylhä et al 2010, Leemans et al 1996, Mahlstein et al 2013, Metzger et al 2008, Rohli et al 2015, Saxon et al 2005, Wang and Overland 2004 due to its greater thematic resolution (125 strata) and spatial resolution (5 arcmin). Its global coverage also provides consistency for comparative analyses, and provides the potential for the dataset to be used as a consistent tool for global assessments.…”

Changes in Koppen–Trewartha climate classification over South America from RegCM4 projections

“…Then, this ratio is multiplied by the observed data. This delta method is commonly used in climate change studies for the analysis of future changes of Köppen climate zones (Gao and Giorgi, 2008;Mahlstein et al, 2013;Feng et al, 2014;Belda et al, 2016; and many others).…”