Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

Mousavi, Mir Emad; Irish, Jennifer L.; Frey, Ashley E.; Olivera, Francisco; Edge, Billy L.

doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0

Cited by 210 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

107

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This is the approach taken in this study, although we note that this finding is not necessarily applicable to all locations (e.g. Mousavi et al, 2011;Smith et al, 2010).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ∼ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean -NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (∼ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ∼ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

show abstract

“…This is the approach taken in this study, although we note that this finding is not necessarily applicable to all locations (e.g. Mousavi et al, 2011;Smith et al, 2010).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…2, Table 2). Hurricanes, and other tropical storms and storm-associated tidal surges, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity over the coming century (Mousavi et al 2011, Schuerch et al 2013), which will affect local systems sporadically and unpredictably. Rhein et al (2013) report that the average height of 50-year flood events has increased 2-10 cm/decade since 1970, indicating saltwater may penetrate further inland and upstream in the future.…”

Section: Salinization Of Coastal Wetlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A global perspective on wetland salinization: ecological consequences of a growing threat to freshwater wetlands

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Salinization, a widespread threat to the structure and ecological functioning of inland and coastal wetlands, is currently occurring at an unprecedented rate and geographic scale. The causes of salinization are diverse and include alterations to freshwater flows, land-clearance, irrigation, disposal of wastewater effluent, sea level rise, storm surges, and applications of de-icing salts. Climate change and anthropogenic modifications to the hydrologic cycle are expected to further increase the extent and severity of wetland salinization. Salinization alters the fundamental physicochemical nature of the soil-water environment, increasing ionic concentrations and altering chemical equilibria and mineral solubility. Increased concentrations of solutes, especially sulfate, alter the biogeochemical cycling of major elements including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, iron, and silica. The effects of salinization on wetland biogeochemistry typically include decreased inorganic nitrogen removal (with implications for water quality and climate regulation), decreased carbon storage (with implications for climate regulation and wetland accretion), and increased generation of toxic sulfides (with implications for nutrient cycling and the health/functioning of wetland biota). Indeed, increased salt and sulfide concentrations induce physiological stress in wetland biota and ultimately can result in large shifts in wetland communities and their associated ecosystem functions. The productivity and composition of freshwater species assemblages will be highly altered, and there is a high potential for the disruption of existing interspecific interactions. Although there is a wealth of information on how salinization impacts individual ecosystem components, relatively few studies have addressed the complex and often non-linear feedbacks that determine ecosystem-scale responses or considered how wetland salinization will affect landscape-level processes. Although the salinization of wetlands may be unavoidable in many cases, these systems may also prove to be a fertile testing ground for broader ecological theories including (but not limited to): investigations into alternative stable states and tipping points, trophic cascades, disturbance-recovery processes, and the role of historical events and landscape context in driving community response to disturbance.

show abstract

“…Recent occurrences of major hurricanes, such as Charley, Frances, and Ivan (2004); Katrina, and Rita (2005); Gustav and Ike (2008); and Isaac and Sandy (2012) and their large impacts call for better understanding of the sensitivity of coastal storm surges to different forcings and parameters that are needed for accurate surge predictions [4][5][6][7]. Despite recent advancements, there are areas of storm surge modeling that can be improved, such as bathymetry and topographic data, especially accounting for erosion and sedimentation due to storm surges, waves, and winds [3]; wind field generation, The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents model details, Section 3 presents simulation cases and capability criteria, Section 4 presents results and discussion, and finally, Section 5 presents concluding remarks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Bottom Friction, Wind Drag Coefficient, and Meteorological Forcing in Hindcast of Hurricane Rita Storm Surge Using SWAN + ADCIRC Model

Akbar

Kanjanda

Musinguzi

2017

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An evaluation of the effect of bottom friction, wind drag coefficient, and meteorological forcing is conducted using a tightly coupled wave and circulation model, SWAN + ADCIRC (i.e., Simulating WAves Nearshore + ADvanced CIRCulation), to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Rita (2005). Wind drag coefficient formulations of Powell, Zijlema, and Peng & Li are used to calculate wind stresses. Bottom friction and wind drag coefficients are systematically increased and decreased to quantify their impacts on the hindcast. Different meteorological forcing options are applied to study the effect of wind fields on storm surge development and propagation. Simulated water levels are compared with observed data collected from about 150 locations. It is evident that a lower bottom friction causes higher and faster surge propagation, and earlier arrival of inundation peak at locations far from the land fall. Drag coefficients of Powell, with or without a cap of 0.002, and Zijlema produce similar results, while that of Peng & Li slightly overpredicted the surge. Wind fields may cause overprediction or underprediction of the surge, depending on the choice of the wind model. A good agreement is found between Zijlema's findings and this study; that simultaneously decreasing or increasing both bottom friction and wind drag essentially provides the same hindcast results.

show abstract

Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

Cited by 210 publications

References 35 publications

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

A global perspective on wetland salinization: ecological consequences of a growing threat to freshwater wetlands

Effect of Bottom Friction, Wind Drag Coefficient, and Meteorological Forcing in Hindcast of Hurricane Rita Storm Surge Using SWAN + ADCIRC Model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About