Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models

Анисимов, О. А.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Nelson, Frederick E.

doi:10.1016/s0921-8181(97)00009-x

Cited by 195 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Zhang et al (2008b) reported an increase in the ALT by 14-30 % from the 1990s to the 2090s in the permafrost region in Canada, depending on the climate forcing. For the entire Northern Hemisphere, Anisimov et al (1997) reported an increase in ALT of 20-30 %.…”

Section: Soil Temperatures and Active Layer Thicknessmentioning

confidence: 98%

Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Northern peatlands contain a large terrestrial carbon pool that plays an important role in the Earth's carbon cycle. A considerable fraction of this carbon pool is currently in permafrost and is biogeochemically relatively inert; this will change with increasing soil temperatures as a result of climate warming in the 21st century. We use a geospatially explicit representation of peat areas and peat depth from a recently-compiled database and a geothermal model to estimate northern North America soil temperature responses to predicted changes in air temperature. We find that, despite a widespread decline in the areas classified as permafrost, soil temperatures in peatlands respond more slowly to increases in air temperature owing to the insulating properties of peat. We estimate that an additional 670 km 3 of peat soils in North America, containing ∼33 Pg C, could be seasonally thawed by the end of the century, representing ∼20 % of the total peat volume in Alaska and Canada. Warming conditions result in a lengthening of the soil thaw period by ∼40 days, averaged over the model domain. These changes have potentially important implications for the carbon balance of peat soils.

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Section: Soil Temperatures and Active Layer Thicknessmentioning

confidence: 98%

Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

et al. 2011

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“…In this research, the methodology developed by Anisimov et al (1997) was chosen as the basis for computation of temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) and active-layer thickness (ALT). The approach takes into account major geographical and geological factors and assumes a periodic, quasi-steady-state temperature regime.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Near-surface Permafrost Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permafrost, Infrastructure, and Climate Change: A GIS-Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling

Streletskiy

Shiklomanov

Nelson

2012

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research

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“…Climate warming has deepened the ALT by ∼7.5 cm/yr in the Tibetan region [Wu and Zhang, 2010] and is projected to increase ALT more than 30% during this century across tundra area in the Northern Hemisphere [Anisimov et al, 1997[Anisimov et al, , 2002Dankers et al, 2011]. On the other hand, growing season gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE, i.e., GPP+ R eco ) may also increase as permafrost is degraded, in spite of less change in annual or growing season ecosystem respiration (R eco , negative value) Trucco et al, 2012].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

Luo

Natali

et al. 2014

JGR Biogeosciences

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Permafrost thaw and its impacts on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics are critical for predicting global climate change. It remains unclear whether annual and seasonal warming (winter or summer) affect permafrost thaw and ecosystem C balance differently. It is also required to compare the short-term stepwise warming and long-term gradual warming effects. This study validated a land surface model, the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model, at an Alaskan tundra site, and then used it to simulate permafrost thaw and ecosystem C flux under annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. The simulations were conducted under stepwise air warming (2°C yr À1 ) during 2007-2011, and gradual air warming (0.04°C yr À1 ) during 2007-2056. We hypothesized that all warming treatments induced greater permafrost thaw, and larger ecosystem respiration than plant growth thus shifting the ecosystem C sink to C source. Results only partially supported our hypothesis. Climate warming further enhanced C sink under stepwise (6-15%) and gradual (1-8%) warming scenarios as followed by annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. This is attributed to disproportionally low temperature increase in soil (0.1°C) in comparison to air warming (2°C). In a separate simulation, a greater soil warming (1.5°C under winter warming) led to a net ecosystem C source (i.e., 18 g C m À2 yr À1 ). This suggests that warming tundra can potentially provide positive feedbacks to global climate change. As a key variable, soil temperature and its dynamics, especially during wintertime, need to be carefully studied under global warming using both modeling and experimental approaches.

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Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models

Cited by 195 publications

References 21 publications

Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

Permafrost, Infrastructure, and Climate Change: A GIS-Based Landscape Approach to Geotechnical Modeling

Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

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