Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

Wisser, Dominik; Marchenko, S. S.; Talbot, Julie; Treat, Claire C.; Frolking, Steve

doi:10.5194/esd-2-121-2011

Cited by 65 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 110 publications

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“…As a result of rising temperatures driving permafrost thaw, it is estimated that tundra ecosystems will shift toward a net C source by the mid‐2020s (Schuur et al, ). Estimates of permafrost loss by the end of the 21st century have ranged from 20 to 70% (Lawrence et al, ; Schaefer et al, ; Schuur & Abbott, ; Wisser et al, ), but more recent conservative estimates are closer to 5–15% (Schuur et al, ), stabilizing at 60% of the current permafrost extent by 2300 if emission targets limit the global climate to 2°C of warming (Chadburn et al, ).…”

Section: Permafrostmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

Dean

Middelburg

Röckmann

et al. 2018

Reviews of Geophysics

403

341

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Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment‐specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

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Section: Permafrostmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

Dean

Middelburg

Röckmann

et al. 2018

Reviews of Geophysics

403

341

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“…Global climate warming is predicted to cause milder winter, thinner and more unstable snow cover in terrestrial ecosystems (Wang, Shu, Zhang, & Guenon, ), which may alter FTC regimes. Milder winter may decrease soil freezing in regions without snow cover; but because snow serves as an insulation layer (Brooks et al., ; Wisser, Marchenko, Talbot, Treat, & Frolking, ), in areas with snow, milder winter may decrease the snow amount and hence increase the intensity, frequency, and duration of FTC. These changes in FTC regimes may strongly affect soil structure (Oztas & Fayetorbay, ; Six, Bossuyt, Degryze, & Denef, ), soil microorganisms (Larsen, Jonasson, & Michelsen, ; Yanai, Toyota, & Okazaki, ), plant fine roots (Campbell, Socci, & Templer, ; Gaul, Hertel, & Leuschner, ; Reinmann & Templer, ), and plant litter inputs (Pelster et al., ; Su, Kleineidam, & Schloter, ), which all may influence soil nutrient cycling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of terrestrial nitrogen pools and dynamics to different patterns of freeze‐thaw cycle: A meta‐analysis

Gao

Zhang

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Altered freeze-thaw cycle (FTC) patterns due to global climate change may affect nitrogen (N) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the general responses of soil N pools and fluxes to different FTC patterns are still poorly understood. Here, we compiled data of 1519 observations from 63 studies and conducted a meta-analysis of the responses of 17 variables involved in terrestrial N pools and fluxes to FTC. Results showed that under FTC treatment, soil NH , NO , NO leaching, and N O emission significantly increased by 18.5%, 18.3%, 66.9%, and 144.9%, respectively; and soil total N (TN) and microbial biomass N (MBN) significantly decreased by 26.2% and 4.7%, respectively; while net N mineralization or nitrification rates did not change. Temperate and cropland ecosystems with relatively high soil nutrient contents were more responsive to FTC than alpine and arctic tundra ecosystems with rapid microbial acclimation. Therefore, altered FTC patterns (such as increased duration of FTC, temperature of freeze, amplitude of freeze, and frequency of FTC) due to global climate warming would enhance the release of inorganic N and the losses of N via leaching and N O emissions. Results of this meta-analysis help better understand the responses of N cycling to FTC and the relationships between FTC patterns and N pools and N fluxes.

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“…Distributed hydrological models often inadequately represent or neglect the subsurface processes of soil freezing and thawing, with very few exceptions (Gusev et al , ; Kuchment et al , ; Mou et al , ; Rigon et al , ; Schaefer et al , ; Schramm et al , ; Semenova et al , ; Ye et al , ). By contrast, permafrost models have effectively described the ground temperature at different depths but have rarely considered temporal dynamics of soil moisture and snow thermal characteristics, instead assigning them as constant parameters (Jafarov et al , ; Westermann et al , ; Wisser et al , ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Simulation of Active Layer Dynamics, Upper Kolyma, Russia, using the Hydrograph Hydrological Model

Lebedeva

Semenova

Vinogradova

2014

Permafrost & Periglacial

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Freeze/thaw simulations were performed for seven permafrost sites at the Kolyma Water Balance Station (KWBS), northeast Russia, using the hydrological model Hydrograph equipped with a heat transfer analytical solution that accounts for soil profile phase changes. The study sites include slopes and plateaus with thaw depths of 0.5 to 1.8 m. Landscape conditions are characterised as rocky talus, mountain tundra with dwarf tree brush, moss‐lichen cover and sparse‐growth forest or larch forest. Soil horizons are distinguished as moss‐lichen cover, peat layer, clay with a high stone content and weathered clayey shale. Schematisation of soil‐vegetation profiles and model parameters were developed for each landscape. Parameterised model output was verified using time series of observed active layer thickness for the period of 1950 to 1990. The simulated values agree well with the observed values at the study sites. The results suggest that the soil profile schematisation and model parameters, along with the proposed algorithm of heat transfer, effectively simulate active layer dynamics under various landscape conditions at the KWBS and are suitable for hydrological modelling in the permafrost zone. The modelling efforts and results are highly relevant because the natural conditions at the KWBS are representative of large areas of northeastern Russia. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

Cited by 65 publications

References 110 publications

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

Responses of terrestrial nitrogen pools and dynamics to different patterns of freeze‐thaw cycle: A meta‐analysis

Simulation of Active Layer Dynamics, Upper Kolyma, Russia, using the Hydrograph Hydrological Model

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