Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Jiang, Leiwen; O’Neill, Brian C.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008

Cited by 510 publications

(292 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This effect can be amplified for projections in coastal flood risk, given the large uncertainty in future exposure under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Jiang and O'Neill, 2017;Jones and O'Neill, 2016). Likewise, the alternative vulnerability set-up that was formulated is arguably limited due to a lack of coastal flood damage data and consequent absence of coastal vulnerability studies that could produce alternative DDFs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Vousdoukas

Bouziotas

Giardino

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policymaking, and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight into the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the coastal flood risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea level (ESL), (ii) the underlying uncertainty in the digital elevation model (DEM), (iii) flood defence information, (iv) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability, and (v) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties on estimated expected annual damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal, and on the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, and their absolute and relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Vousdoukas

Bouziotas

Giardino

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…These narratives have been translated into consistent quantitative scenarios covering future trends in areas ranging from population and education 91 , to GDP growth 92 , urbanization 93 , energy and land use. Here we will only focus on what has been termed "the human core of the SSPs" 94 because it directly addresses the future of human beings, including their changing numbers and regional distributions as well as their health and empowerment through education.…”

Section: Scenarios Of Future Adaptive Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model

Lutz

Muttarak

2017

Nature Clim Change

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In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multidimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being. 3Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on future human well-being requires a combination of two kinds of forecasts: how the climate of the future will be different from that of today; and how humans and there societies in the future will differ in terms of numbers, regional distributions, age structures and, most importantly, their capacities to successfully adapt to changing climatic conditions. This includes capacities at multiple levels from individual, to household, community and national level as well as the associated qualities of institutions and levels of economic development. Much work has been carried out in terms of modelling the future climatic conditions 1-3 , but very little has been done for modelling the future socioeconomic conditions. Successful adaptation is also dependent on the qualities of institutions and levels of economic development. In this Perspective, we discuss recent progress in the latter field, especially in the demographic metabolism model and illustrate the potential of multi-dimensional demographic methods for forecasting societies' adaptive capacities to climate change.The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report appropriately summarizes what was the state of the art on this issue: "Most scenario-based assessments superimpose biophysical 'futures' onto present-day socioeconomic conditions." 4 . While this

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“…Once a database is developed, any pertinent issue can be studied within the scope and limitations of the model. This study used a scenario-based long term energy-economy modelling, which is acknowledged as an important method to explore uncertainties in the future (O'Neill et al, 2017). The alternative scenarios were formulated to address the present research objective.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Urban centres are being recognised as a place for population and economic growth (GDP) (Jiang & O'Neill, 2017). As nations around the world urbanise, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will become more critical, which is at the heart of climate policy ever since the establishment of the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (United Nations, 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bhutan: Can the 1.5 °C Agenda Be Integrated with Growth in Wealth and Happiness?

Yangka

Newman

2018

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Bhutan is a tiny kingdom nested in the fragile ecosystem of the eastern Himalayan range, with urbanisation striding at a rapid rate. To the global community, Bhutan is known for its Gross National Happiness (GNH), which in many ways is an expression of the Sustainable Development concept. Bhutan is less known for its policy of being carbon neutral, which has been in place since the 15th session of the Conference of Parties meeting in 2009 and was reiterated in their Nationally Determined Contribution with the Paris Agreement. Bhutan achieves its carbon neutral status through its hydro power and forest cover. Like most emerging countries, Bhutan wants to increase its wealth and become a middle income country by 2020, as well as increase its GNH. This article looks at the planning options to integrate the three core national goals of GNH, economic growth (GDP) and greenhouse gas (GHG). We investigate whether Bhutan can contribute to the 1.5°C agenda through its 'zero carbon commitment' as well as growing in GDP and improving GNH. Using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model, this article shows that carbon neutral status would be broken by 2037 or 2044 under a high GDP economic outlook, as well as a business as usual scenario. National and urban policy interventions are thus required to maintain carbon neutral status. Key areas of transport and industry are examined under two alternative scenarios and these are feasible to integrate the three goals of GHG, GDP and GNH. Power can be kept carbon neutral relatively easily through modest increases in hydro. The biggest issue is to electrify the transport system and plans are being developed to electrify both freight and passenger transport.

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Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cited by 510 publications

References 43 publications

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model

Bhutan: Can the 1.5 °C Agenda Be Integrated with Growth in Wealth and Happiness?

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