Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

Abstract

The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability.

Solar photovoltaic capacity demand for a sustainable transport sector to fulfil the Paris Agreement by 2050

“…Transportation demand is derived for the main segments road, rail, marine, and aviation for passenger and freight transportation. 19 The road segment is substructured into passenger LDV, passenger 2W/3W, passenger bus, freight MDV, and freight HDV. The other transportation modes are composed of demand for freight and passengers.…”

“…The specific energy demand values for converting transportation demand into energy demand are taken from various sources. 19 The electricity demand to produce hydrogen and FT-fuels (diesel, petrol, and kerosene) is derived by applying respective value chains 9 and taking CO 2 direct air capture (DAC) 27,28 into account to achieve the required level of sustainability. The CO 2 could also originate from a carbon point source, which is either sustainable because of bio-CO 2 (pulp and paper mills 29 ) or unavoidable because of lack of better options (limestone fraction of cement mills 30 or municipal solid waste incinerators).…”

“…The data show a continuous demand increase of all transportation modes for passenger and freight demand is presented, based on an individual demand analysis for all countries in the world. 19 The expected scenario for the development of the fuels in the five major road segments, and for rail, marine, and aviation is visualised in Figures 3 and 4, respectively. The applied efficiencies for power-to-gas (PtG) for H 2 is 84%, for CH 4 57%, and for FT fuels 53%.…”

“…for BEVs. Finally, the LCOM is the decisive driver for the shares of fuels and powertrains, as discussed in more detail by Khalili et al 19…”

“…The anticipated strong direct electrification in the road and rail segments, continued higher demand of liquid fuels, and more energy intensive PtG (H 2 , CH 4 ) fuels for the marine and aviation segments 19 The external electricity demand of BEVs may be further reduced by vehicle-integrated PV, 32,33 that has been demonstrated by Sono Motors to extend the range of a BEV by up to 30 km/d. 34 Another example is for the expected tremendous efficiency gain in direct electric aviation, with an efficiency gain from 0.545 kWh th /p-km (2015, kerosene) to 0.141 kWh/p-km (2050, electricity).…”