Global spatiotemporal consistency between meteorological and soil moisture drought indices

Afshar, Mahdi; Bulut, Burak; Düzenli, Eren; Amjad, Muhammad Kamal; Yılmaz, M. Tuğrul

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108848

Cited by 46 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…While drought is a complex phenomenon [7,8], whose intensity can be exacerbated by non-trivial land surface-atmosphere feedbacks and land usage [9], the large scale atmospheric circulation played a key role in driving the 2022 Euro-Mediterranean drought. This is evident when examining the mean December 2021-August 2022 circulation anomalies: a persistent high pressure anomaly centered over France is visible both in the lower and middle troposphere (figure 1(a)).…”

Section: Characteristics Of the 2022 Euro-mediterranean Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Faranda

Pascale

Bulut

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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A prolonged drought affected Western Europe and the Mediterranean region in 2022 producing large socio-ecological impacts. The role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in exacerbating this drought has been often invoked in the public debate, but the link between atmospheric circulation and ACC has not received much attention so far. Here we address this question by applying the method of circulation analogs, which allows us to identify atmospheric patterns in the period 1836-2021 very similar to those occurred in 2022. By comparing the circulation analogs when global warming was absent (1836-1915) with those occurred recently (1942-2021), and by excluding interannual and interdecadal variability as possible drivers, we identify the contribution of ACC. The 2022 drought was associated with a persistent anticyclonic anomaly over Western Europe. Circulation analogs of this atmospheric pattern in 1941-2021 feature 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies larger in both extent and magnitude, and higher temperatures at the surface, relative to those in 1836-1915. Both factors exacerbated the drought, by increasing the area affected and enhancing soil drying through evapotranspiration. While the occurrence of the atmospheric circulation associated with the 2022 drought has not become more frequent in recent decades, the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation cannot be ruled-out.

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Section: Characteristics Of the 2022 Euro-mediterranean Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Faranda

Pascale

Bulut

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The SSMI is one of the most straightforward indices developed and validated in different studies and is a powerful tool for monitoring agricultural drought [63,[66][67][68]. The multiyear soil moisture average value is for each pixel, and the multi-year soil moisture average value in different months is obtained by calculating the pixel-by-pixel average value of the long-term series in different months.…”

Section: Ssmi-based Identification Of Drought Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring of Extreme Agricultural Drought of the Past 20 Years in Southwest China Using GLDAS Soil Moisture

et al. 2022

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Drought can cause severe agricultural economic losses and hinder social and economic development. To manage drought, the process of drought events needs to be described with the help of an effective drought indicator. As a comprehensive variable, soil moisture is an essential indicator for describing agricultural drought. In this work, the extreme drought events in southwest China were analysed by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) root zone soil moisture data set. To define the drought quantitatively, a Standardized Soil Moisture Drought Index (SSMI) was calculated using the soil moisture data, then used to get the duration, frequency, and severity of drought events in southwest China. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of drought in southwest China had an apparent upward trend before 2014 and an apparent downward trend since 2014. Moreover, there are apparent differences in the frequency and intensity of drought in various regions of southwest China. Yunnan Province is prone to spring drought events. Guangxi Province and Guizhou Province are prone to spring, autumn and winter droughts, and the intensity of autumn and winter droughts is significantly higher than that of spring droughts. The Sichuan-Chongqing border area is prone to summer drought. We found that the monthly variation of soil moisture in different provinces in southwest China is consistent, but the seasonal variation of drought is different. Meanwhile, the performance of the SSMI was compared to the commonly used drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The results showed that the SSMI is more sensitive to drought than both SPEI and PDSI in southwest China. The results also demonstrate that GLDAS soil moisture data can be used to study drought at a small regional scale.

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“…Studies have been carried out to monitor meteorological and agricultural droughts at the global scale [ 33 , 34 , 35 ] and also at the regional scale across Africa [ 36 , 37 ]. For instance, Ayugi et al [ 36 ] reviewed meteorological drought events across Africa, along with historical trends, impacts, and mitigation practices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Nxumalo

Bashir

Alsafadi

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002–2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002–2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr–Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

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Global spatiotemporal consistency between meteorological and soil moisture drought indices

Cited by 46 publications

References 77 publications

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Monitoring of Extreme Agricultural Drought of the Past 20 Years in Southwest China Using GLDAS Soil Moisture

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

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